TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBRof MIBR, TYLOO
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$959,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,107,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $959,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 709 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40e…9770backed TYLOO47c70,000$32,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,699.8117951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed TYLOO54c42,956$23,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,294.8510361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed MIBR56c37,895$21,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,673.8210142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed MIBR52c35,145$18,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,869.5826256.1%147 W · 115 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked TYLOO45c30,765$13,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,951.9577052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TYLOO47c30,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00050254.2%272 W · 230 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TYLOO47c30,000$14,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,249.9976657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked MIBR54c27,252$14,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,536.064639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed MIBR53c25,624$13,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,112.5441649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked TYLOO46c25,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.9216245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9e…1997backed MIBR56c22,669$12,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,953.11283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+39.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MIBR46c21,996$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,796.291,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MIBR53c19,999$10,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.5333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed TYLOO44c17,700$7,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,78813345.1%60 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed TYLOO48c15,625$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed MIBR53c15,554$8,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,310.3615947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked MIBR47c13,396$6,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,115.5236753.7%197 W · 170 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked MIBR53c12,203$6,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700.798748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed TYLOO45c10,000$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.9975550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed MIBR55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9930340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked TYLOO43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.967646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TYLOO48c9,520$4,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,594.715,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked MIBR53c9,434$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.9625751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed MIBR54c8,706$4,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,021.3967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed MIBR58c8,335$4,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.7933359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked MIBR53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7604742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked TYLOO48c7,992$3,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,836.228538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed TYLOO42c7,212$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.077363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked MIBR63c7,099$4,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.3141340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed TYLOO46c6,522$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020947.8%100 W · 109 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked TYLOO48c6,075$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.268032.5%26 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MIBR41c5,752$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,400.591,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MIBR47c5,697$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.221,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked TYLOO24c5,527$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.7230726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed MIBR53c5,521$2,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,59567951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked MIBR54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30012956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed MIBR54c4,630$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.819455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MIBR43c4,079$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.671,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed TYLOO46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84078939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked TYLOO44c3,895$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.281,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed MIBR56c3,870$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.856737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MIBR48c3,742$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.527,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed MIBR54c3,663$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.7712955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MIBR43c3,613$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.5989546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TYLOO68c3,381$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.591,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked TYLOO45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.8234559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed MIBR62c3,314$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.0221346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed TYLOO46c3,284$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.5160248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked MIBR53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41017540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TYLOO37c2,985$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.674,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed TYLOO41c2,963$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2106245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked MIBR74c2,952$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.1445357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed MIBR56c2,931$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.712259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed TYLOO45c2,900$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30587351.2%447 W · 426 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed TYLOO45c2,778$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked MIBR54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.7825361.3%155 W · 98 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed TYLOO61c2,602$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.1310254.9%56 W · 46 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed MIBR56c2,541$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.0655343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed TYLOO46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed MIBR58c2,500$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.2317249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TYLOO50c2,441$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.142,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed MIBR55c2,364$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.6449251%251 W · 241 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MIBR69c2,319$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.436,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed TYLOO45c2,273$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.311,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed TYLOO1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301080.9%1 W · 107 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed TYLOO1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…9437backed TYLOO47c2,202$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked MIBR56c2,200$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.9818959.8%113 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed TYLOO57c2,147$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22411265.2%73 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed TYLOO48c2,083$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.0845639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed TYLOO17c2,045$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.0732136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked MIBR54c2,028$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.8736240.3%146 W · 216 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked MIBR54c2,000$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93055843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked MIBR54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9209454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed TYLOO44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9618846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked TYLOO43c1,966$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.082,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked MIBR53c1,877$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3639157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed TYLOO41c1,833$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7609256.5%52 W · 40 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa40…9e37backed TYLOO62c1,759$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.424440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aee…5808backed TYLOO47c1,659$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7926…2d97backed TYLOO11c1,641$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7570%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed TYLOO46c1,630$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9913732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked TYLOO40c1,623$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.223,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed MIBR59c1,620$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.25459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MIBR53c1,617$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.8160540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TYLOO46c1,600$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7361,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eab…4822backed MIBR57c1,574$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.6811551.3%59 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed TYLOO46c1,555$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.3815155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed TYLOO45c1,550$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.4929443.9%129 W · 165 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd163…1428backed MIBR41c1,502$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.11442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed TYLOO47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed TYLOO1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed TYLOO47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7051,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked MIBR63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55517148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed TYLOO68c1,497$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.8746749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TYLOO29c1,440$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.45,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TYLOO47c1,424$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6651,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed MIBR55c1,382$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.9735048%168 W · 182 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed MIBR77c1,365$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.5121443%92 W · 122 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked MIBR54c1,350$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62510538.1%40 W · 65 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.