WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80a986e6af0326937a1609e84910f64ebbb94703b9b44600d84354bacb83c7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Tempoof Indiana Fever, Toronto Tempo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc638…e298backed Toronto Tempo | 47c | 4,468$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.09 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 4,307$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.23 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 4,031$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.08 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9f…5e45backed Toronto Tempo | 47c | 2,915$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 2,867$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.51 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 2,740$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.27 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Tempo | 47c | 1,896$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.48 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Tempo | 47c | 1,107$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.82 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Toronto Tempo | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 999.99$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.99 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed Toronto Tempo | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Toronto Tempo | 45c | 791.02$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.11 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Tempo | 47c | 773.13$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.15 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 651.22$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.93 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…9483backed Toronto Tempo | 46c | 564.3$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Tempo | 47c | 521.43$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 406.11$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.74 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Toronto Tempo | 46c | 275.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Toronto Tempo | 47c | 270$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked Toronto Tempo | 47c | 201.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 195.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 113.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Toronto Tempo | 44c | 87.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 52.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Tempo | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Indiana Fever | 62c | 45.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 44.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Indiana Fever | 63c | 31.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 27.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Toronto Tempo | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Tempo | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…b550backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 21.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 19.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)this page
- Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Toronto TempoIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 190.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 191.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 192.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 193.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)Toronto Tempo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.