TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Cordenons: Federico Bondioli vs Guido Justo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Federico Bondioliof Federico Bondioli, Guido Justo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Guido Justo23c21,685$5,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.569,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…9cf8backed Federico Bondioli72c18,784$13,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,289.045940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Guido Justo60c14,254$8,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,506.7325852.7%136 W · 122 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Guido Justo28c13,051$3,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,67072129.7%214 W · 507 L-41.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Guido Justo20c8,775$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.5611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd998…bb91backed Guido Justo32c5,756$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Federico Bondioli40c3,891$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.33,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked Federico Bondioli76c3,255$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.82568%17 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f98…0aa1backed Federico Bondioli79c3,101$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.1911557.4%66 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c7d…83edbacked Federico Bondioli79c2,900$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6095135.3%18 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb00c…dfa2backed Guido Justo49c2,436$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010452.9%55 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Guido Justo24c2,038$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.968,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Guido Justo20c1,944$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.532,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Guido Justo19c1,867$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.994,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Guido Justo13c1,549$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5139451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18de…7c92backed Federico Bondioli74c1,486$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.4915155%83 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Federico Bondioli44c1,478$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.611,88145.7%860 W · 1,021 L+51.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db8…0ed7backed Federico Bondioli80c1,318$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.339649%47 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Guido Justo27c1,303$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35072040.8%294 W · 426 L+2.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Federico Bondioli44c1,250$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.991,88344.8%843 W · 1,040 L+36.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Federico Bondioli75c1,117$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.934,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26bd…1af5backed Federico Bondioli78c1,026$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.6422647.8%108 W · 118 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked Guido Justo20c926.35$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2331452.9%166 W · 148 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Federico Bondioli40c905.5$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.911,70248.3%822 W · 880 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Federico Bondioli41c901.86$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.12,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Federico Bondioli75c893.91$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.231,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef30…e949backed Guido Justo4c878$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Guido Justo33c800.1$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.349,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Guido Justo33c799.99$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x118a…457ebacked Federico Bondioli69c683.72$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.453871.1%27 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2180…df40backed Federico Bondioli80c670.55$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.117048.6%34 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Federico Bondioli40c635$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3815461.1%33 W · 21 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+37.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x624e…168dbacked Federico Bondioli76c507.02$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Guido Justo26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13045445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Federico Bondioli40c499.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.975,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Guido Justo19c467.86$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.981,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed Guido Justo24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025633.6%86 W · 170 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Federico Bondioli75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,63252.7%860 W · 772 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Federico Bondioli71c369.54$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8588157.9%510 W · 371 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Guido Justo59c362$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.581,22953.1%653 W · 576 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Guido Justo37c347.71$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0721838.1%83 W · 135 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Guido Justo29c340$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.622846.5%106 W · 122 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Federico Bondioli42c320$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.613247%62 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Federico Bondioli78c300.75$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.257374%54 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Federico Bondioli40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Guido Justo30c287.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8572651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Federico Bondioli43c278.57$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.781,58042.3%668 W · 912 L+18.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed Federico Bondioli72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7811765%76 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Federico Bondioli41c269.05$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.741,75449.1%862 W · 892 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Federico Bondioli41c268.29$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.291,57939.8%629 W · 950 L-34.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Federico Bondioli41c253$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2723742.6%101 W · 136 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x852d…c3dfbacked Federico Bondioli76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6010764.5%69 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Federico Bondioli39c249.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.533234%113 W · 219 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Federico Bondioli78c245.36$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.621,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Federico Bondioli40c226.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4595237.7%359 W · 593 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Federico Bondioli46c219.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0228748.8%140 W · 147 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb0…c615backed Federico Bondioli78c210$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468456%47 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e7…84e9backed Guido Justo15c202.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1822638.9%88 W · 138 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Federico Bondioli79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4216355.8%91 W · 72 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8876…01fbbacked Federico Bondioli72c194.44$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.443748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Guido Justo60c193.8$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.283148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x693b…84e3backed Federico Bondioli79c189.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.859063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Federico Bondioli77c188.37$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3754955.2%303 W · 246 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Guido Justo20c174.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9231053.5%166 W · 144 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Guido Justo45c168.78$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.441,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Guido Justo60c164.76$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.367146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Guido Justo61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009050%45 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Guido Justo11c160.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6821246.2%98 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Guido Justo25c153$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Guido Justo23c147.59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.921,47643.8%647 W · 829 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b6…5858backed Guido Justo24c145.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.723030.4%70 W · 160 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1d…09bfbacked Federico Bondioli70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Federico Bondioli41c140$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.61,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Federico Bondioli67c133.39$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.253,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Guido Justo24c129.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.781,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Guido Justo23c124.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.175,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Guido Justo9c117.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.056,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Guido Justo22c116$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.525,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Guido Justo16c112.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.246,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…dd7dbacked Federico Bondioli73c111.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.457963.3%50 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41dd…6c94backed Guido Justo61c106.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653756.8%21 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Guido Justo57c105.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba73…2fc0backed Federico Bondioli70c104.06$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Guido Justo24c101.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1139751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Federico Bondioli43c101.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5945751%233 W · 224 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Federico Bondioli40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.583747.6%398 W · 439 L-2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Guido Justo54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,54249.2%759 W · 783 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Guido Justo18c96.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.455357.3%317 W · 236 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Federico Bondioli41c95.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.191,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Federico Bondioli43c93.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.97,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf188…4a83backed Guido Justo29c89.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612423.4%29 W · 95 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdfa…79a0backed Guido Justo60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Guido Justo60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Guido Justo57c81.59$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5190152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2713…43b2backed Guido Justo37c80.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Federico Bondioli51c80.58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6264147.7%306 W · 335 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85af…c5ffbacked Guido Justo23c79.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.153930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Guido Justo19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1575912.1%92 W · 667 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Guido Justo16c76.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.146,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Guido Justo27c74.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.