Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e748b6ca32339f39da781ff54bd8f05111c3bc90e0546daaabe6ab5c170cba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 729.71$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 697.6$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 23c | 559.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 546.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 75c | 454.35$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 383$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 9c | 374.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 354.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 19c | 346.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 40c | 322.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 316.78$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 282$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 264.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 4c | 256.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 215.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 39c | 203.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 202$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 24c | 193.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 190.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 184.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 183.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 182.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 38c | 175.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 171$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 154.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 35c | 142.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 139.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 136.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 131.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 125.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 123.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 123.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 10c | 122.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 117.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 105.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 104.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 94.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 82.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 78.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 73.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 40c | 69.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 65.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 25c | 64.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 38c | 62.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 55.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 54.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 52.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 50.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 50.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 30c | 45.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 42.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 41.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 39.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 37.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 37.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 77c | 37.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 35.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 30.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 29.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 36c | 29.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 66c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 66c | 27.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.