Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102ee7d1acda2048d77d13d0123af50e3b97460e9a401533b885ce786e635772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 725.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 687.44$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 72c | 590.8$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 533.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 45c | 531.83$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.2 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 518.28$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 38c | 495.87$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 63c | 444.63$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 386.96$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 355.44$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 18c | 350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 19c | 309.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 56c | 299.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 280$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 250.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 61c | 250.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 223.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 222.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 218.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 24c | 206.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 18c | 191.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 181$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 174.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 171.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 151.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 139.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 130.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 128.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 126.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 123.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 122.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 14c | 122.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 118.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 116$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 115.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 113.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 109.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 54c | 108.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 68c | 99.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 98.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 33c | 90.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 76c | 83.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 80.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 74.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 73.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 63c | 70.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 68.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 62c | 64.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 37c | 60.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 57.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 27c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 53.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 51.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 30c | 50.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 27c | 49.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 43c | 42.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 43c | 40.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 43c | 40.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 40.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 39.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 39.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 38.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 37c | 37.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 37.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 35c | 36.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 40c | 36.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 70c | 35.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 38c | 29.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 59c | 29.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 28.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 70c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 27.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 26.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 63c | 26.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a7…4b39backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 25.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 76c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.