Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814439a45ed74fc198164a0afe8302d6e40ce120c2c680b31e48912e35cabb17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 80c | 1,833$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.51 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 67c | 595.4$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.31 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 22c | 573.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.04 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 19c | 570.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.26 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 28c | 515.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.92 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 32c | 500.17$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 63c | 494.33$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.71 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 35c | 400$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 398.89$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 40c | 384.43$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.85 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 52c | 346$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 52c | 322.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes | 57c | 313.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 33c | 272.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 60c | 222.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…728ebacked Yes | 71c | 202.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb487…026cbacked Yes | 21c | 185$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 180.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 174$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 79c | 141.01$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 52c | 116.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 14c | 114.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 53c | 112.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 108.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 106.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 105.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…d582backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…ff47backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 36c | 98.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed No | 39c | 97.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 66c | 95.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 45c | 92.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 86.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 46c | 81.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 38c | 77.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 47c | 76.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…eb30backed Yes | 28c | 64.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 64c | 64.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 40c | 64.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…8e3dbacked No | 52c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…d850backed No | 64c | 37.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 35.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 46c | 35.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e4ecbacked No | 65c | 34.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…9504backed Yes | 46c | 34.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…e5c1backed Yes | 52c | 29.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked No | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…a129backed Yes | 48c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…0e4cbacked No | 62c | 16.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…a1fabacked No | 62c | 16.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.