Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ddd2d7f4f1ba2013f6f6d756288e45f9305b2680ffc7a48c4f3df691e015cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 3,162$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 71c | 1,982$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.79 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 64c | 1,677$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.26 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 54c | 1,517$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.73 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 38c | 1,415$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.49 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 36c | 1,201$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.51 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 17c | 591.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.3 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 11c | 530$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 4c | 352.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 28c | 344.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.49 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 52c | 213.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 55c | 198.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 8c | 170$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 25c | 164.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 67c | 162.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 51c | 159.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 36c | 154$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…d582backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 133.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 13c | 102.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed No | 65c | 99.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 94.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 29c | 89.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 45c | 87.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 74.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 64.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb487…026cbacked Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 58.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 34c | 43.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 36.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…11a2backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 35c | 33.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0721…549ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…3179backed Yes | 77c | 22.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…bc6bbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…8e3dbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.