NBA · resolved market
Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817b78f6b1e8de33c783075e0fbfc1f7d3fe7203724942f0101d58938c339dce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,161 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 67c | 1,957$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.83 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…bba5backed Yes | 36c | 1,605$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 64c | 1,503$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.2 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 588.71$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…9b19backed Yes | 29c | 345.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…c012backed Yes | 43c | 311.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes | 36c | 301.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…1b58backed Yes | 27c | 268.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…b480backed Yes | 43c | 234.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 26c | 230.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 74c | 213.86$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7574…9be2backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 27c | 187.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 36c | 120.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…164cbacked Yes | 24c | 112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Yes | 23c | 94.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 27c | 91.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…02b9backed Yes | 25c | 86.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Yes | 27c | 79.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 73c | 67.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…2347backed No | 80c | 63.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 28 | 100%28 W · 0 L | +9.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked Yes | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Yes | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 55c | 53.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 24c | 46.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…0ec7backed Yes | 26c | 43.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ef…ce6cbacked Yes | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 74c | 26.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Tari Eason: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Tari Eason: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Trail Blazers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.