TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,466 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No64c1,574$1,006 inWon+$56826069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes34c1,374$467 inLost-$467.0495651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No69c989.17$679 inWon+$310.6265762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked No73c868.23$634 inWon+$234.426669.7%46 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25e5…193bbacked Yes35c585.71$205 inLost-$205250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No65c578$378 inWon+$200.454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d1…89debacked Yes38c573.68$218 inLost-$21810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed Yes27c555.56$150 inLost-$1501717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No63c325$205 inWon+$120.256361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes34c322.75$110 inLost-$1103925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab2c…bba5backed Yes38c221.24$83 inLost-$83.292642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes37c218.36$81 inLost-$81.0293145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x485f…65afbacked Yes28c144.5$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes27c98$26 inLost-$26.461,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa081…77e6backed Yes26c85.89$22 inLost-$22.2218356.3%103 W · 80 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No71c78.07$55 inWon+$22.641,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbf2…fe36backed Yes32c74.21$23 inLost-$23.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191f…4381backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No71c40.77$29 inWon+$11.8297049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No74c40$30 inWon+$10.490357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.