TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$933,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $933,044 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets51c249,836$126,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,169.212,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Trail Blazers50c120,800$60,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,40066248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rockets50c102,900$51,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,280.41,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Trail Blazers50c70,000$35,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,0001,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Trail Blazers49c60,291$29,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,542.5930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Rockets50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,00059347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Rockets50c52,775$26,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,387.5947848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Trail Blazers51c52,564$26,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,730.8843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Trail Blazers49c51,962$25,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,706.5187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Trail Blazers49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,50029650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Trail Blazers49c49,750$24,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,377.511653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Rockets51c49,020$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,019.6136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Trail Blazers49c48,458$23,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,744.4372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Trail Blazers49c48,263$23,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,766.0660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Rockets51c35,951$18,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,615.8514856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers49c30,956$15,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,168.951,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets50c27,176$13,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,587.961,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b37…3b3ebacked Trail Blazers52c21,884$11,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,360.772147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Trail Blazers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Trail Blazers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets50c18,946$9,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,4754,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets49c15,165$7,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,777.194,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets49c13,544$6,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,926.042,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Rockets50c9,396$4,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,69824053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Rockets50c8,644$4,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,32213442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers56c7,217$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,031.592,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Trail Blazers50c6,403$3,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,210.521,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Trail Blazers49c6,015$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.492,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets42c5,749$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.184,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Rockets51c5,500$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,69548054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Trail Blazers50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Rockets48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9912745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets47c4,198$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.028,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Trail Blazers52c3,850$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.951,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets49c3,809$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.416,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers49c3,061$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Trail Blazers52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d4…b415backed Trail Blazers53c2,948$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.441656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Rockets52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.6256453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Trail Blazers52c2,291$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.2180737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rockets49c2,286$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.843,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Rockets49c2,100$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0711,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Rockets48c2,094$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.7532450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Rockets51c2,006$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.941,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Trail Blazers56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1201250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Rockets49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02022752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Rockets51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.9972241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…55b3backed Rockets51c1,910$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.93548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Trail Blazers51c1,905$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.441,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3077…d15dbacked Rockets48c1,771$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.921850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd10…3542backed Rockets47c1,696$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c42…feefbacked Rockets47c1,678$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd222…6441backed Rockets47c1,611$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.831844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Trail Blazers57c1,590$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.894143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Rockets49c1,520$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.252,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Rockets48c1,465$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.720352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers50c1,407$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.653,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Trail Blazers50c1,300$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Rockets49c1,261$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.1122143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked Rockets37c1,249$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.6510342.7%44 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Rockets49c1,237$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.8723052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bb…54ebbacked Trail Blazers53c1,202$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.061361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Trail Blazers54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60021142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Rockets52c1,081$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.778838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Trail Blazers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Rockets50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d46…3215backed Rockets48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Rockets48c958.33$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.3321355.9%119 W · 94 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Trail Blazers50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009842.9%42 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Rockets49c793.07$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.1611942.9%51 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Trail Blazers51c787.21$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Trail Blazers52c750.04$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.341947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Rockets48c730$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.631354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Rockets49c700.68$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6887453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Rockets48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3257150.7%36 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Trail Blazers50c604$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30218043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Rockets50c599.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9611142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Trail Blazers51c592.16$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30257650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Trail Blazers52c559$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6847856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Trail Blazers52c525.78$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.76055%33 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets48c521.35$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.279,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rockets48c500.31$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.161,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Rockets48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd6…6543backed Trail Blazers53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2652334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Rockets51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24527052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db4…91e2backed Trail Blazers53c410$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.31855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Trail Blazers51c400$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20552844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Trail Blazers50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Trail Blazers50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20036143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Rockets51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1966253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Rockets49c380$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.89742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Rockets45c373.89$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.61,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Rockets49c326.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5328751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Trail Blazers52c314.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7926553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Rockets48c290.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2151146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Rockets40c282.97$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.223950.6%121 W · 118 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Rockets48c278.24$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6829352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Rockets51c261.08$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4548852%254 W · 234 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Rockets51c258.54$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.2492750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.