NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd98147ee81bdbc8ffd583ffccf1ee3050be5a0ab166ae0017cb9a6ef65f347b3

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Trail Blazersof Rockets, Trail Blazers
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,742 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers	55c	2,972$1,628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,344.59	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets	45c	2,112$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.01	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers	54c	1,798$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$834.92	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Rockets	26c	1,597$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.68	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets	46c	1,130$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.74	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers	76c	1,052$798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.11	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets	45c	887.46$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.36	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets	47c	839.27$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.65	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Trail Blazers	55c	545.65$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.65	423	48%203 W · 220 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets	47c	485.82$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.14	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Rockets	48c	434.02$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.33	455	42.4%193 W · 262 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Rockets	47c	432$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.04	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Rockets	56c	413.04$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.33	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Trail Blazers	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Trail Blazers	24c	369.9$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.12	188	35.1%66 W · 122 L	+24.5wins	+0.13per pick	22cpaid	+116.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Trail Blazers	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers	52c	359.68$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.12	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Rockets	45c	312$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.4	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers	56c	300$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Trail Blazers	53c	250$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Rockets	5c	245.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	+37%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Rockets	11c	241.89$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	155	34.2%53 W · 102 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Trail Blazers	54c	226.61$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.24	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Rockets	41c	210.85$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.25	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Rockets	48c	207.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	602	50.5%304 W · 298 L	+14.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets	44c	204.2$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.56	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed Rockets	45c	181.1$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.45	84	60.7%51 W · 33 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Trail Blazers	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	381	52.8%201 W · 180 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Trail Blazers	56c	159.57$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.21	179	60.9%109 W · 70 L	+17.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Rockets	45c	156$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Trail Blazers	56c	109.09$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	207	44%91 W · 116 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Rockets	47c	106.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Trail Blazers	57c	105.26$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.26	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers	54c	101.85$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.85	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Rockets	45c	101.73$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.48	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Trail Blazers	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	423	48.5%205 W · 218 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Rockets	46c	99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Trail Blazers	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers	55c	90.9$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.9	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers	55c	90.89$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.9	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Rockets	44c	90$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Rockets	48c	80.77$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.77	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Trail Blazers	57c	78.95$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.95	257	52.5%135 W · 122 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Rockets	45c	78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Rockets	45c	78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Rockets	44c	75.59$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.26	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rockets	44c	72.79$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.07	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets	47c	70.27$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Rockets	44c	69.75$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	74	43.2%32 W · 42 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea1c…b810backed Trail Blazers	57c	69.25$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.08	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Rockets	46c	59.46$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.35	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Trail Blazers	52c	53.23$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…267abacked Trail Blazers	57c	52.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-5.2wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Rockets	20c	50.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Trail Blazers	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Trail Blazers	57c	49.12$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.12	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0107…bce5backed Rockets	45c	48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Rockets	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Rockets	45c	35.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	289	43.3%125 W · 164 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1024…831abacked Trail Blazers	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Trail Blazers	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.04	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Rockets	43c	29.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	161	41.6%67 W · 94 L	-11.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Rockets	48c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.83	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Rockets	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	123	31.7%39 W · 84 L	-17.0wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Rockets	46c	21.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe4eb…05b5backed Trail Blazers	55c	21.55$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.7	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2f…5f91backed Trail Blazers	57c	21.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Trail Blazers	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Reed Sheppard: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 14.5No won
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
Tari Eason: Assists O/U 1.5No won
Tari Eason: Points O/U 12.5No won
Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Trail Blazers vs. RocketsRockets won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event