NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Celtics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81bf8045e4130dd649630aabf72d98a91e6183f9d6ef5f38be781ac9186f57b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Raptors, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Raptors | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 10c | 39,904$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,895.04 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Raptors | 7c | 33,490$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.36 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe330…1674backed Raptors | 2c | 11,129$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Raptors | 1c | 6,995$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Raptors | 8c | 6,139$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.12 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Raptors | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Raptors | 0c | 5,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…19ecbacked Raptors | 9c | 4,912$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Raptors | 9c | 4,611$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Raptors | 10c | 4,360$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.23 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…cbb9backed Raptors | 8c | 3,700$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Raptors | 9c | 3,331$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raptors | 1c | 2,465$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Raptors | 11c | 1,991$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.85 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…402bbacked Raptors | 10c | 1,733$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed Raptors | 12c | 1,491$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 168 | 38.7%65 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…cce0backed Raptors | 9c | 1,344$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Raptors | 4c | 1,261$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked Raptors | 9c | 1,143$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 109 | 21.1%23 W · 86 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…d9e5backed Raptors | 9c | 1,127$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Raptors | 9c | 1,126$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…208fbacked Raptors | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Raptors | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Raptors | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Raptors | 3c | 916$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Raptors | 2c | 810.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Raptors | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…699dbacked Raptors | 11c | 656.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Raptors | 12c | 641.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Raptors | 10c | 608.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 303 | 31.4%95 W · 208 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Raptors | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Raptors | 10c | 509.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 336 | 38.1%128 W · 208 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Raptors | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 153 | 41.8%64 W · 89 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…1379backed Raptors | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Raptors | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Raptors | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Raptors | 10c | 489.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Raptors | 13c | 477.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Raptors | 10c | 458.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…40bdbacked Raptors | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Raptors | 12c | 439.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…0878backed Raptors | 9c | 403.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Raptors | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Raptors | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Raptors | 8c | 280.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…7374backed Raptors | 8c | 262.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7094backed Raptors | 9c | 256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Raptors | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Raptors | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 501 | 44.7%224 W · 277 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Raptors | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Raptors | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 487 | 41.9%204 W · 283 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Raptors | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…1e41backed Raptors | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd07f…6c05backed Raptors | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…2037backed Raptors | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fb…c051backed Raptors | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…386ebacked Raptors | 9c | 166.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Raptors | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 34.5%41 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Raptors | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Raptors | 9c | 155.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c6…35e8backed Raptors | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Raptors | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Raptors | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…b038backed Raptors | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed Raptors | 10c | 108.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 243 | 36.2%88 W · 155 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…e12fbacked Raptors | 12c | 107.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed Raptors | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee4…caa5backed Raptors | 11c | 96.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2689…0e09backed Raptors | 11c | 91.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ef62backed Celtics | 77c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.