Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827eb218c55d9bef7b7064ad41465f1544b4c01f8f99e293d5ad1f3dfef13ada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 37c | 1,547$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.82 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 794.23$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 351.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 345$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 319$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 40c | 284.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 267.52$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 236.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 202.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 195.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 189.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 183.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 165$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 155.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 20c | 150.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 133.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 129$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 114.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 106.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 105.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 101.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 100.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 96.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 65c | 95.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 71c | 80.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 49c | 75.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 24c | 73.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 38c | 68.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 63c | 68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 62c | 55.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 53.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 50.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8721…c2b1backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 52c | 49.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 47.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 47.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 34c | 45.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 43.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 39.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 36.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 33c | 36.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 44c | 35.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 39c | 33.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed Yes | 33c | 32.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 31.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 66c | 31.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 54c | 27.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 66c | 26.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 25.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 24.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 59c | 21.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 21.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 21.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…ba62backed Yes | 77c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 77c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 17.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 85°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.