Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198c5cdb9f601d9c30b170e793615daaf8e0b22e3521f1b43568ee80ff174118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 409.53$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 332.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 326.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 313.47$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 312.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 202$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 189.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 188.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 158.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 152.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 31c | 126.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 119.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 28c | 119.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 113.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 111.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 104.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 102.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 99.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 89.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 87.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 87.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 73c | 82.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 76.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 60c | 72.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 69.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 69.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 69.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 68.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 67.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 25c | 65.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 30c | 65.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 65.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 54.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 29c | 54.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 53.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 43c | 52.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 44c | 52.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 50.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 47.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 69c | 43.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 42.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 37.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 35.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…f9f2backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 34c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 30.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 22.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 22.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 61c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 85°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.