TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof L1ga Team, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy69c32,100$22,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,861.2380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Nigma Galaxy59c15,000$8,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,150.56256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed L1ga Team35c13,714$4,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,817.3645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked L1ga Team30c11,883$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,570.6696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed L1ga Team35c10,251$3,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,542.0140051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team41c9,526$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.3771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed L1ga Team25c6,861$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.9638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Nigma Galaxy70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked L1ga Team32c3,994$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.9236851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed L1ga Team29c2,236$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.5934051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed L1ga Team33c1,800$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5941,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy64c1,655$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59761745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team37c1,574$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.31,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy65c1,500$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.1142145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked L1ga Team28c1,400$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Nigma Galaxy66c1,300$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed L1ga Team10c1,239$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12019145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked L1ga Team3c1,233$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.815558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+65.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team34c1,172$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.611,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4d…7a8fbacked L1ga Team30c1,163$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3493542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed Nigma Galaxy61c1,128$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.141540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy74c1,100$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28641055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team32c1,050$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3352,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked L1ga Team32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012255.7%68 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed L1ga Team49c887.65$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9544645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy72c870.19$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.2361456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team30c818$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.141,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed L1ga Team32c817.51$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.69063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Nigma Galaxy75c793.33$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.3339660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team29c695.19$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.571,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team31c543.89$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.041,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed L1ga Team4c533.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2472035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team16c520.63$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.961,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed L1ga Team25c498.36$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12411742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nigma Galaxy70c482.32$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed L1ga Team34c410.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3354246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed L1ga Team17c361.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3947548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy61c356.4$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed L1ga Team40c350$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5274549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team20c328.34$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.042,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked L1ga Team32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed L1ga Team32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy74c300$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked L1ga Team28c298$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4416328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Nigma Galaxy70c254.73$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9823555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked L1ga Team33c254$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9169033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed L1ga Team32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8047951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked L1ga Team30c242.63$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.73557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked L1ga Team35c240.55$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.621,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed L1ga Team46c232.55$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0820939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed L1ga Team33c203$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.072638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed L1ga Team33c203$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.072343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Nigma Galaxy65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7067555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy62c199.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed L1ga Team30c198.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6915147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy71c187$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked L1ga Team29c186.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.446245.2%28 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked L1ga Team33c186$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4615536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy71c175$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.451,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed Nigma Galaxy70c172.56$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.564450%22 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed L1ga Team32c168.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0822552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed L1ga Team36c161.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.021,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed L1ga Team31c158.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4922534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed L1ga Team32c154.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked L1ga Team27c148.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9637…cefdbacked Nigma Galaxy67c140$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked L1ga Team21c134.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.941,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Nigma Galaxy70c128.06$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5922868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed L1ga Team33c127$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.935923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ea…86cabacked L1ga Team32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407751.9%40 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed L1ga Team31c123$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7465337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Nigma Galaxy70c114.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.299964.6%64 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed L1ga Team41c109.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.77954.4%43 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed L1ga Team30c108.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.921,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked Nigma Galaxy71c101.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1210552.4%55 W · 50 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed L1ga Team34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3450247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed L1ga Team34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3416453.7%88 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked L1ga Team34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348846.6%41 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed L1ga Team34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346347.6%30 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed L1ga Team34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3416250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed L1ga Team30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae1…3769backed L1ga Team20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed L1ga Team31c92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.282157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+71.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed L1ga Team34c86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2418248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed L1ga Team34c86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2425351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked L1ga Team34c83.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3414641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…92e1backed L1ga Team30c82.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked L1ga Team34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.27255.6%40 W · 32 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Nigma Galaxy65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2831865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed L1ga Team34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.212651.6%65 W · 61 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Nigma Galaxy66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nigma Galaxy76c78.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.691,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a9c…535ebacked L1ga Team33c78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.462540%10 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed L1ga Team39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304440.9%18 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed L1ga Team32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2465647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed L1ga Team34c66.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3630647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked L1ga Team27c63.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.279341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Nigma Galaxy65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.327357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed L1ga Team34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.436044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked L1ga Team34c52.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7252649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.