Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe370e20a8a28f4caa330df005195f6c9bd9a5bc58337f7d747b92a5eea0986d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof L1ga Team, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 5,619$4,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.93 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed L1ga Team | 33c | 3,731$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.23 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed L1ga Team | 31c | 3,232$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed L1ga Team | 34c | 2,754$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.03 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked L1ga Team | 29c | 2,747$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.34 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…c48fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 2,674$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 2,359$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.89 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 2,112$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.94 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 2,000$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.18 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 2,000$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.99 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked L1ga Team | 32c | 1,558$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.79 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…a4cebacked L1ga Team | 25c | 1,546$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 1,208$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.82 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…2d2dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 1,137$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.32 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 1,011$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.48 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed L1ga Team | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked L1ga Team | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…0457backed L1ga Team | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked L1ga Team | 20c | 915.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 849.36$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.78 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 843.2$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.69 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team | 29c | 750$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed L1ga Team | 33c | 737.15$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.04 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…7a8fbacked L1ga Team | 11c | 709.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 22c | 614.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked L1ga Team | 32c | 599.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.71 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked L1ga Team | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed L1ga Team | 33c | 454.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 452.41$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team | 17c | 390.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 383.22$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 370.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team | 27c | 322.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 301.89$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed L1ga Team | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 268.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed L1ga Team | 4c | 256$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed L1ga Team | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed L1ga Team | 22c | 194.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked L1ga Team | 33c | 189.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed L1ga Team | 23c | 175.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 172.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed L1ga Team | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed L1ga Team | 20c | 151.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 148.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…3841backed L1ga Team | 27c | 145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 138.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 135.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed L1ga Team | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked L1ga Team | 17c | 121.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 114.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed L1ga Team | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 99.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 89.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed L1ga Team | 15c | 84.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…fb0bbacked L1ga Team | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed L1ga Team | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 49.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…c0d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 40.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 25.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…cf1abacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 304 | 58.6%178 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Group BNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.