TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leo Teamof Leo Team, Inner Circle Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b7…0aa1backed Inner Circle Academy12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.991,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked Inner Circle Academy39c3,393$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.2843751.7%226 W · 211 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Leo Team43c2,170$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.124235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Leo Team79c2,165$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.672,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Inner Circle Academy47c1,978$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.0223356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Inner Circle Academy38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57094445.7%431 W · 513 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Leo Team62c1,195$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.035,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Leo Team55c1,152$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.2775145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Leo Team73c1,135$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.242,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Leo Team62c1,070$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.4314949.7%74 W · 75 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Leo Team73c1,020$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.061,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41d1…bac0backed Leo Team57c880.88$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.886250%31 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Inner Circle Academy38c773.71$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.011,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Inner Circle Academy48c727.99$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.945,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Leo Team62c724.16$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.8922645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Inner Circle Academy17c666.55$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.328743.2%124 W · 163 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Inner Circle Academy54c601.83$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.691,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed Leo Team47c585$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.756246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Inner Circle Academy53c564.01$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leo Team67c559.06$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.972,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Inner Circle Academy55c557.98$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3935153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle Academy50c547.64$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.55,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed Inner Circle Academy37c500.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5121545.6%98 W · 117 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Leo Team57c497.62$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21567645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Leo Team63c496.24$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.982,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Inner Circle Academy45c459.5$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.330949.2%152 W · 157 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Inner Circle Academy47c456.28$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.587052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed Inner Circle Academy39c447.13$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9114439.6%57 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Leo Team73c407.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.232,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Leo Team44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7711949.6%59 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be5…4465backed Inner Circle Academy50c384.35$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.181844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Leo Team62c362.9$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.621,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1efb…dd8abacked Leo Team49c343.88$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.997946.8%37 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Leo Team56c320.93$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9329156.7%165 W · 126 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Leo Team77c311.9$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.047,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42cd…2359backed Inner Circle Academy41c304.3$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Leo Team62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11417042.4%72 W · 98 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed Inner Circle Academy42c290.59$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12313148.9%64 W · 67 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed Leo Team45c276.12$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4332243.5%140 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd1…864bbacked Leo Team62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.942857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Leo Team41c236.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9317055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8818…f8acbacked Leo Team59c224.73$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7316660.8%101 W · 65 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked Leo Team63c214.13$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.233831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Leo Team59c202$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.492,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2865…2005backed Leo Team54c199.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.991788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+47.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Inner Circle Academy41c185.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.622,08447%979 W · 1,105 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf868…3b45backed Leo Team43c184.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0411841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Leo Team60c182.76$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.614,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb595…4b77backed Leo Team40c176.85$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.855246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Leo Team64c170.95$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.14,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Leo Team62c168$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8420248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa8…efa7backed Leo Team62c163.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.044365.1%28 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Inner Circle Academy37c160$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.239145.8%179 W · 212 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Leo Team62c158.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2473548.4%356 W · 379 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Inner Circle Academy45c155.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.333,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed Inner Circle Academy39c153.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5521650%108 W · 108 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed Inner Circle Academy39c153.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Leo Team67c150.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.15058%29 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824a…3952backed Inner Circle Academy26c143.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3813938.8%54 W · 85 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed Inner Circle Academy38c130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick47cpaid-75.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d4d…4065backed Leo Team63c121$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.372864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Inner Circle Academy38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Leo Team58c118.01$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9834356.6%194 W · 149 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Leo Team62c114.43$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6391245.8%418 W · 494 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed Leo Team42c107.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7725635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbecc…5672backed Inner Circle Academy41c106$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.393531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a9…c576backed Leo Team66c103.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.633441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Leo Team61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395048%24 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Leo Team58c99.07$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.061,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85cd…aca5backed Inner Circle Academy50c99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54323.3%10 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Leo Team56c98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7549050.6%248 W · 242 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Leo Team63c97.79$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.311,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Inner Circle Academy39c91.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.781,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Leo Team40c90.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4344144.2%195 W · 246 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2dd…b35bbacked Leo Team43c88.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.491050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…1d44backed Leo Team52c88.46$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.46560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle Academy37c87.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.894,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Inner Circle Academy47c83.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.560755%334 W · 273 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Leo Team79c83$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4640175.1%301 W · 100 L+20.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leo Team40c76.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.192,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Leo Team62c75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6229246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Leo Team59c74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.535,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5ea0backed Leo Team63c68.14$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.069252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed Leo Team64c63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5951969.2%359 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Leo Team46c62.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.432,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a30…7039backed Inner Circle Academy36c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6875…7337backed Leo Team60c58.41$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.361080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Leo Team78c53.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6624260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d94…eb52backed Leo Team62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Leo Team77c49.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5327150.6%137 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Leo Team62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3983556.2%469 W · 366 L+31.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Leo Team60c48.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1674633.4%249 W · 497 L-48.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Leo Team61c47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5612071.7%86 W · 34 L+16.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Inner Circle Academy48c46.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5719851.5%102 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Leo Team54c45.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9319252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Leo Team52c43.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8762048.2%299 W · 321 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9454…9abcbacked Leo Team60c41.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6410254.9%56 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed Inner Circle Academy55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.818351.4%94 W · 89 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad8…1b8abacked Inner Circle Academy38c39.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Inner Circle Academy44c39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9723056.1%129 W · 101 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.