TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2of Gentle Mates, G2
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$831,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$978,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $831,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed G264c289,682$185,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,764.943438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Gentle Mates36c210,800$75,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,562.9122049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed G263c113,005$71,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,846.9314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Gentle Mates36c90,000$32,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,699.984557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Gentle Mates36c50,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,999.9911655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked G278c24,184$18,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,365.882965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked G264c15,294$9,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,510.614738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed G264c15,292$9,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,508.188552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Gentle Mates36c14,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,04036645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Gentle Mates26c8,685$2,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.71,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked G259c7,440$4,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,050.3835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Gentle Mates37c6,837$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.666634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed Gentle Mates15c6,457$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.639852%51 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Gentle Mates36c6,238$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.613044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed G261c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.9716152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Gentle Mates36c5,563$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked G266c5,339$3,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.6614954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Gentle Mates36c5,301$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.9223243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates32c5,082$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.9187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Gentle Mates39c5,043$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.793930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9c…95d1backed G263c4,915$3,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gentle Mates28c4,485$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.841,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed G260c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6008862.5%55 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Gentle Mates39c3,960$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.451252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Gentle Mates41c3,951$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.524731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gentle Mates18c3,948$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.453,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Gentle Mates22c3,884$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.4220838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed G277c3,862$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.3612451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Gentle Mates34c3,784$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.2197040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Gentle Mates37c3,705$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.923743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates23c3,677$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.056,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Gentle Mates19c3,650$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.785230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Gentle Mates36c3,434$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.7510550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Gentle Mates35c2,994$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.439248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates25c2,958$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.617,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Gentle Mates36c2,795$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gentle Mates31c2,739$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.571,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked Gentle Mates37c2,717$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.816947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Gentle Mates38c2,530$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.8511940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Gentle Mates40c2,493$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.0278639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Gentle Mates37c2,473$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.0547147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gentle Mates32c2,434$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.181,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked G266c2,224$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.945,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Gentle Mates25c2,218$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.085,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed G262c2,198$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.7714839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Gentle Mates19c2,182$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.513,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gentle Mates34c2,047$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.8860848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Gentle Mates40c2,024$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.0712148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Gentle Mates37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74032832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x845a…c09bbacked Gentle Mates38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7601060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Gentle Mates40c1,962$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.775245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Gentle Mates37c1,797$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.915441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Gentle Mates36c1,629$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5825248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Gentle Mates28c1,621$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.319540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Gentle Mates11c1,608$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4452834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Gentle Mates38c1,600$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60823653.4%126 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed G269c1,548$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.0315264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Gentle Mates15c1,485$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4349646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Gentle Mates22c1,484$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.124,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Gentle Mates40c1,457$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.2112328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed G263c1,426$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.18563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32e3…3075backed Gentle Mates37c1,389$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Gentle Mates21c1,318$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed G278c1,279$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.6322761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Gentle Mates2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3c…0518backed Gentle Mates26c1,231$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.982619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Gentle Mates15c1,228$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.672,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Gentle Mates37c1,165$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.078032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c99…dfe9backed Gentle Mates25c1,164$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.861637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked G262c1,140$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3429046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Gentle Mates22c1,116$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.865,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked Gentle Mates14c1,094$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7121519.1%41 W · 174 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Gentle Mates32c1,079$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3115749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Gentle Mates18c1,066$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2227831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b3…2baabacked Gentle Mates30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Gentle Mates36c926.12$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.632832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Gentle Mates20c915.69$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.043823.7%9 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-51.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e76…05aabacked G276c911.54$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.542572%18 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Gentle Mates33c907.57$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2483543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Gentle Mates34c838.43$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0735242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Gentle Mates21c816.47$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1867372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed G263c792.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Gentle Mates35c792.26$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0285446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4b…1f89backed Gentle Mates27c789.83$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf98…735fbacked G262c788.56$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.97977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Gentle Mates40c771.2$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.4813743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe751…9af6backed Gentle Mates25c764$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912025%5 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Gentle Mates30c746.8$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7313238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2978…4a1cbacked G268c744.27$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.173354.5%18 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2489…ee90backed Gentle Mates41c726.44$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.843548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Gentle Mates31c721.91$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.532,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef9c…7b3fbacked Gentle Mates13c717.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.753040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890b…97bebacked Gentle Mates39c696.19$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Gentle Mates36c664.22$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1232042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Gentle Mates20c652.24$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4530726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked G277c645.13$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.732,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Gentle Mates22c636.58$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9521528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Gentle Mates16c628.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.981,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked G275c613.15$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9829555.3%163 W · 132 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2430…4527backed G264c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.