Tennis · resolved market
Vancouver: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Hayato Matsuoka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c7b238ea67b49124c6215ac42e5890068f885af46b32a150c3e970518eae24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hayato Matsuokaof Shintaro Mochizuki, Hayato Matsuoka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 7c | 12,558$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.16 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c79…42aebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 16c | 4,247$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.85 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 65c | 1,979$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.39 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 5c | 1,639$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 24c | 942.66$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.58 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Hayato Matsuoka | 73c | 930.09$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.72 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…998bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 59c | 840$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,671 | 53%885 W · 786 L | +44.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 13c | 810$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 41c | 787.37$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.55 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 41c | 632.3$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 58c | 618.1$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.58 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 35c | 500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 489 | 41.1%201 W · 288 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hayato Matsuoka | 66c | 491.87$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…6e89backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 42c | 465.66$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 51c | 243$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 55c | 218.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 22c | 205.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Hayato Matsuoka | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 205 | 63.4%130 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…d00fbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 14c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 370 | 44.3%164 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Hayato Matsuoka | 43c | 131.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 55c | 127.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 891 | 34.3%306 W · 585 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Hayato Matsuoka | 42c | 91.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Hayato Matsuoka | 59c | 83.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 59c | 76.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Hayato Matsuoka | 79c | 74.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Hayato Matsuoka | 75c | 72.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Hayato Matsuoka | 47c | 67.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 15c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 32c | 59.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 23c | 54.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…f5b0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 469 | 57.6%270 W · 199 L | +32.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…daa3backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 32.5%66 W · 137 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 57c | 34.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…a8d4backed Hayato Matsuoka | 64c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…18a9backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Hayato Matsuoka | 43c | 28.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…9fa1backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 67c | 20.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…ac2abacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 63c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf8…093bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.