Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87bffcd21a32886cda9c0036b9fe5e11ef0fa01759099a4a53db2f61c14a7146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,864$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,547$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.28 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 55c | 875.52$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.48 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 62c | 728.94$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.96 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 717.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 713.16$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 585$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 70c | 510.94$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.47 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 509.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.26 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 502.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 34c | 498.7$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.86 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 37c | 493.12$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.74 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 56c | 488.84$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 441.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 33c | 425.13$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 423$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 6c | 337.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 320$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 306.68$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 41c | 260$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3a…6437backed Yes | 27c | 242.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 235.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 66c | 207.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked Yes | 46c | 195.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 6c | 195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 190.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 57c | 186.56$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 184.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 57c | 174.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 58c | 174$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 142$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 136.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 131.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 130.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 53c | 119.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 118.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 115.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 26c | 109.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…8062backed Yes | 55c | 108.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 108$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 107.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 102.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 33c | 100.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 100.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 92.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 79c | 90.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 90.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 30c | 89.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 57c | 87.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 53c | 86.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 68c | 84.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 84.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 28c | 84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 71.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…8af7backed Yes | 28c | 70.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 65.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…4da6backed Yes | 46c | 64.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 64.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 58c | 63.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 62.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 60.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…49b0backed Yes | 67c | 60.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 25c | 58.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 35c | 57.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 57.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 56.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 54.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…3543backed Yes | 60c | 54.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 56c | 53.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 56c | 50.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 30c | 49.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 54c | 47.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…98efbacked No | 74c | 46.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 44.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4369…a611backed No | 61c | 43.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 47c | 42.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 47c | 42.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 41.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…e9ccbacked Yes | 45c | 41.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 62c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 46c | 39.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 39.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.