Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f9cc66914b3966b6490614e048ea4876d61b8900b01f9348603cb9b45f4a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 4,784$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,034$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 65c | 555.98$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.91 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 519.43$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 35c | 513.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.13 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 431.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 33c | 424$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 365.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 361$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 31c | 277$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 256.3$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…49b0backed Yes | 41c | 200.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 62c | 199.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 196.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 19c | 185.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 180.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 41c | 177.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 170.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…0c22backed Yes | 39c | 169.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 8c | 155.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 152.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 137.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 47c | 124.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 50c | 120.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 119$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 115.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 36c | 111.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 32c | 103.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 37c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 101.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 99.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 98.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 98.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 97.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 42c | 82.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 80.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 77.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f3…883cbacked Yes | 40c | 75.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 71.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 68.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 34c | 65.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 65.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 62.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 32c | 62.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 56.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 63c | 55.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 31c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 70c | 48.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 45.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 43.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 40.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…d341backed No | 65c | 37.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 43c | 34.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 61c | 33.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…6bdfbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…10e6backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 25.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.