TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,573 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c4,784$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.773,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf713…86fdbacked Yes1c1,034$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x662e…4b20backed No65c555.98$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9112055%66 W · 54 L+16.4wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes30c519.43$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9247432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes35c513.08$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2928925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes38c500$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1355336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes5c431.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.722,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes33c424$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.254531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c365.2$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c361$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed Yes31c277$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.375125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed No62c256.3$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0116552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes41c240$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.47945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d9…49b0backed Yes41c200.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes33c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6618731%58 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec6…7566backed No62c199.97$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.992634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No68c196.96$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1841760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdc…e382backed Yes19c185.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.043023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c180.55$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.513,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes41c177.78$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.153943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c170.45$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.514,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded9…0c22backed Yes39c169.53$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes8c155.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1247423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c152.22$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.743,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.888027.5%22 W · 58 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes29c137.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.437,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3594…08ecbacked Yes47c124.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.822548%12 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda89…6215backed Yes50c120.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c119$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.75,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c115.42$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.093,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes36c111.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes38c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.414635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c110$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.383,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x797b…464fbacked Yes42c110$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes32c103.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.141637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes37c102$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.372055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c101.76$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.113,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9211330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3256921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.523060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes31c99.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c98.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes28c98.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.723,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c97.39$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.369,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c93$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.412,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes33c90.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2612832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.519052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No69c86$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.661,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f29…475abacked Yes42c82.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.597233.3%24 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No63c80.57$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No65c77.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.362,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f3…883cbacked Yes40c75.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x758d…9548backed Yes17c72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.925133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No66c71.95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.412,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No60c68.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.211,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes34c65.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c65.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes33c62.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes32c62.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No63c56.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No63c55.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3719662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes31c54.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.058538.8%33 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.526933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1244646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.516157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked No55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.59965.7%65 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf93…5d2abacked No66c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178962.9%56 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed No70c48.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5435441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes34c45.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5680130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.314,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes34c43.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6552446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c40.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e71…afe6backed Yes30c40.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227226.5%72 W · 200 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.538830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes29c39.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511624.1%28 W · 88 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x578e…ae91backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8261…d341backed No65c37.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.271872.2%13 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.11,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.683647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0c…a631backed Yes43c34.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No61c33.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…b1f2backed No61c32.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.855160.8%31 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No64c30.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.192,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No58c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…6bdfbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…10e6backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.814835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c25.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No73c24.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No62c24.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.442,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.