Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89912e6556fb23181787e6b68a80b2826534e573c8af65d58eb42e36807d104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,874$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…8062backed Yes | 14c | 1,020$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 800$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…7417backed Yes | 23c | 700.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 13c | 697.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 75c | 621.51$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 14c | 527.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 402.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 376.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 327.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 7c | 321.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 20c | 299.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 14c | 285.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 277.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 11c | 255.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 250.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 17c | 234.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 234.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 217.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 77c | 216.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 27c | 190.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 17c | 181.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 180.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 78c | 171.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…49b0backed Yes | 22c | 155.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 141.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 128.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 19c | 121.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 115.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 27c | 110.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 14c | 103.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 24c | 101.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 100.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 21c | 93.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 91.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 91.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 85.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 78.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 68.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 67.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 65.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…8af7backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 57.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 27c | 55.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 20c | 50.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 50.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…3621backed Yes | 23c | 49.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 46.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 45.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 76c | 34.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed No | 79c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…e9ccbacked No | 80c | 25.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.