Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88be0e210a26b20710ad6b91bd74641e8341df7cf3a74e9d3b96076f725e45c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 2,952$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.3 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 50c | 1,986$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.79 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 50c | 1,861$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.05 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 797.55$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 787.68$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 753.17$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 45c | 507.9$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.38 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 68c | 499.99$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.12 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 387$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 53c | 374.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 362.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 361.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 341.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 336.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 336.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 309.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 276.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 53c | 256$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 54c | 248.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 201.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 199.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 175.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 63c | 170.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 142.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 32c | 140$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 128$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 127.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 122.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Yes | 62c | 118.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 37c | 114.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 112.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 35c | 96.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 93.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 46c | 81.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 43c | 74.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef7c…0a11backed Yes | 55c | 72.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 72c | 69.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 36c | 68.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 38c | 66.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 66c | 66.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 65.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 45c | 65.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 65.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 60.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 59.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 72c | 59.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 59.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 34c | 58.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 57.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 45c | 56.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 32c | 55.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 53.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 45c | 52.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 45c | 51.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 52c | 51.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 51.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 66c | 51.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 59c | 50.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 46c | 46.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 44.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 44c | 44.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 56c | 40.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 46c | 36.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 35.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 35.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 73c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 49c | 32.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 31.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 67c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked No | 67c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 29.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.