Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d2a3e4a9fc26baaca7c3fa26bae64c138785f5f7ccb5163a64aef8b63e9c660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 34c | 1,350$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.58 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 1,300$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 1,116$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.78 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 654.03$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 573.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 389.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 387.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.63 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 336.91$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 310.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 7c | 260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 12c | 251.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 243.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 238.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 237.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 225$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 218.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 190.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 174$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 173.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 8c | 173.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked No | 62c | 161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 147.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 138.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 68c | 130.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 32c | 129.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 128.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 125.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 35c | 124$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 117$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 24c | 116.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 38c | 115.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 115$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 109.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 80c | 101.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 101.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 25c | 93.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 91.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…fde9backed Yes | 48c | 90.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…13b0backed Yes | 48c | 86.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 85.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…e2bcbacked Yes | 48c | 84.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 81.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 81.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 68c | 80.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 79.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 35c | 78.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 68c | 78.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 47c | 74.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 79c | 74.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 21c | 71.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Yes | 25c | 69.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 43c | 69.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed No | 69c | 69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 63.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 62.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 62.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 59.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 39c | 58.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 58.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 38c | 55.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 53.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes | 80c | 50.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 50.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 49.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 47c | 49.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 43c | 49.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 41c | 48.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 25c | 47.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 42.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 38c | 42.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 49c | 41.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 39.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 37.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 36.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 58c | 32.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…1b6ebacked No | 62c | 30.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.