World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c7724f3b62e3ab90a09446ce9d227b12256ff8394964632d526f43a78b7335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 1,800$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 1,181$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.02 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 1,138$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.22 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 55c | 978.31$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.76 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 787$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.51 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 62c | 656.54$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 43c | 611.59$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 440$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 386.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 50c | 350$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 48c | 324.06$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 60c | 322.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 27c | 299.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 288.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 263$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 66c | 247.94$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 17c | 231.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 228.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 28c | 222.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 221$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 47c | 219.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 50c | 215$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 209.11$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 48c | 208.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 47c | 205.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 33c | 204.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 77c | 198.58$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 193$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 187.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 55c | 183.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 182.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 23c | 179.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 42c | 162.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 153$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 47c | 153$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 152.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 149.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 22c | 148.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 35c | 145.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 79c | 142.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 28c | 137.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 134.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 133.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 56c | 128.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 121.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 121.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 119$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 116.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 114.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 114.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 113$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 112.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 109.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 49c | 103.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 100.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked Yes | 66c | 100.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 53c | 94.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 13c | 94.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 20c | 94.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 16c | 91.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 91.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 90.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 87.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 22c | 86.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 86.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 81.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 79.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 77.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 51c | 70.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 70.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 69.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 66.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 46c | 62.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 34c | 59.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 43c | 58.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 43c | 58.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 50c | 58.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 56.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 55.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 54.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 68c | 54.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 52.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.