TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes49c1,800$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.882339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes38c1,181$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.0223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No40c1,138$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.2214959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes55c978.31$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.767427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c787$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.5132354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No62c656.54$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.332458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes43c611.59$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.322927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c440$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No41c386.97$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5121854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes50c350$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.125644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes48c324.06$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.263531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes60c322.22$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2418342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18318445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes27c299.97$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9814842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No56c288.26$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4827143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No54c263$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0211839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No66c247.94$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.271637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes17c231.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.951717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No46c228.27$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No28c222.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.124052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c221$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4826355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes47c219.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.995052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes50c215$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.889337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No49c209.11$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6914454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes48c208.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.721770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes47c205.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No33c204.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.265223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.840648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14412816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No49c199.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes77c198.58$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.135957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes50c198.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.04450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c193$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No50c187.68$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No55c183.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c182.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No23c179.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes42c162.26$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.82231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No48c153$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4410243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No47c153$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72100%0 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No59c152.01$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6512040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No31c149.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1814553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes22c148.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.093928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No35c145.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.466357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No79c142.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes28c137.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.357353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c134.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5928558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No55c133.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7313646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes56c128.21$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.67057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c121.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0639414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes49c121.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.499558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c119$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c116.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3513348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No20c114.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4316450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No47c114.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.335954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes35c113$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.455749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes46c112.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.854944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No46c109.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7515954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No49c103.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.111030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No48c103$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c102$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes51c100.41$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bed…b1febacked Yes66c100.21$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a15…bf31backed No53c94.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No13c94.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4814954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No20c94.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8416850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.341241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes16c91.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No39c91.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5514445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No59c90.86$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.974443.2%19 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c90$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c87.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.393756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes22c86.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.52161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No33c86.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2415056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No18c81.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0414753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9916738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No33c79.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2216051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes43c77.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.982157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.410837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No51c70.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.778854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes43c70.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No58c69.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.995170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes41c66.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.772857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes46c62.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.041952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85875.9%44 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked No24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes34c59.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.041855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes43c58.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+43.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes43c58.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed No50c58.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No35c57.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1314521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c56.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes54c55.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.853735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes42c54.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.682466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes68c54.34$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.481050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No33c52.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6316254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.