TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$837,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$955,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $837,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6adc…bebabacked Astralis39c257,603$99,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,686.3613633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Astralis39c158,164$61,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,672.2339249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed FUT Esports61c99,662$60,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,868.3722142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed FUT Esports61c78,299$47,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,536.4522049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed FUT Esports60c72,394$43,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,916.325048%24 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FUT Esports65c46,643$30,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,333.593,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FUT Esports60c45,000$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,00083652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked FUT Esports61c40,000$24,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,599.987147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Astralis39c35,941$14,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,016.8321048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked Astralis40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.986048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FUT Esports71c22,558$16,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,508.7172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Astralis39c19,776$7,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,712.7342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked FUT Esports61c15,000$9,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,85027133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Astralis39c12,010$4,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,640.731,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed FUT Esports61c11,941$7,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,656.981752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Astralis18c11,590$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.8833043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Astralis15c11,575$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.8116240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Astralis38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.9341649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked FUT Esports63c9,844$6,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,684.2235850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Astralis16c8,827$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.3781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked FUT Esports60c8,643$5,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.2829046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FUT Esports60c8,614$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,429.8522448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…3373backed FUT Esports62c8,000$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0406752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed FUT Esports60c7,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80022849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FUT Esports62c6,990$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.3765650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed FUT Esports60c6,659$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.723246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked FUT Esports60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4004452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Astralis39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed FUT Esports60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00045848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports61c5,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Astralis12c4,823$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.224550.2%123 W · 122 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Astralis40c4,666$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.393756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fd…40ebbacked FUT Esports60c4,585$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.041533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Astralis39c4,236$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.2912441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x573c…c365backed Astralis39c4,082$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked FUT Esports62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52021251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Astralis39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Astralis40c4,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis22c3,720$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.321,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed FUT Esports59c3,633$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.4337946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed FUT Esports60c3,352$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.6720838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Astralis9c3,302$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.322,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Astralis38c3,300$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17e9…fcc9backed FUT Esports61c3,208$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.115954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Astralis3c3,167$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6747738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca9…d946backed Astralis40c3,143$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FUT Esports61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17033452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aaf…1441backed FUT Esports60c2,989$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed FUT Esports62c2,900$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10212742.5%54 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…1a4ebacked FUT Esports60c2,600$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0404630.4%14 W · 32 L-9.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Astralis39c2,517$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.5484454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Astralis39c2,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9751,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed FUT Esports61c2,481$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.496251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…0126backed FUT Esports61c2,459$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.0213857.2%79 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked FUT Esports60c2,425$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9701546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a4…0830backed FUT Esports61c2,241$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Astralis7c2,057$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.329139.6%36 W · 55 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Astralis14c2,000$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2761228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked FUT Esports62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76027530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed FUT Esports65c2,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69012651.6%65 W · 61 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Astralis13c1,946$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.669153.8%49 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Astralis33c1,749$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.0314839.2%58 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Astralis38c1,700$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6461,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FUT Esports67c1,694$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.577,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Astralis38c1,589$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60419643.4%85 W · 111 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports72c1,489$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.931,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked Astralis39c1,412$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5569044.4%40 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Astralis38c1,400$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.9916653%88 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Astralis12c1,366$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.091735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Astralis39c1,310$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.7232348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked FUT Esports75c1,305$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4710550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed FUT Esports60c1,298$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0717847.2%84 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked FUT Esports60c1,167$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.671855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Astralis39c1,150$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.520944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7337…1fafbacked Astralis26c1,141$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8919022.6%43 W · 147 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed FUT Esports61c1,140$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.7896545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Astralis9c1,130$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.44528.9%13 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96f4…3d43backed FUT Esports62c1,048$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa2…e45cbacked FUT Esports65c1,014$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.984647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Astralis38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3806744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Astralis41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4105149%25 W · 26 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed FUT Esports60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013030.8%40 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Astralis38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3806046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed FUT Esports61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1026…fdcebacked Astralis39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3905,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b8…d47dbacked FUT Esports61c953.33$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.3360857.2%348 W · 260 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports73c949.75$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.26,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde19…3a14backed FUT Esports72c925.61$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3612552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed FUT Esports64c900$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32424262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1487…d443backed Astralis33c817.6$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.766944.9%31 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked FUT Esports62c807.94$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.9415648.1%75 W · 81 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fc…ad4bbacked FUT Esports62c807$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.666873.5%50 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked Astralis11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886060%36 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Astralis39c800$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31213242.4%56 W · 76 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked FUT Esports61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31242050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed FUT Esports60c799.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9953444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Astralis24c784.18$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.464,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FUT Esports65c783$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.981,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Astralis39c769$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9160248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.