Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad9c003b71048114e051792d1970610ef1d772963d6600d9fc3743e58954650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,293$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.78 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 686.49$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.3 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 384.59$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 68c | 361.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 366 | 57.4%210 W · 156 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 276.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 42c | 248.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 153 | 39.2%60 W · 93 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 40c | 220.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 800 | 24.8%198 W · 602 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 171$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 148.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 145.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 140$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 49c | 119.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 437 | 51%223 W · 214 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 112.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 21c | 112.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 87.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 84.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 20c | 80.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 189 | 10.1%19 W · 170 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 76.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 74.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 53c | 74.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed Yes | 48c | 65.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 43c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 45.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…82a9backed Yes | 37c | 34.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 33.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 33.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 31.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 65%145 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 31.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 253 | 68.8%174 W · 79 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 26.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 76c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 57c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 788 | 36.5%288 W · 500 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 20.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 916 | 62.3%571 W · 345 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 17.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 58c | 17.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -12.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 981 | 57%559 W · 422 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.