Champions League · resolved market
Will Kuopion PS vs. FK Vardar Skopje end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8afbe61ed60ccb7e8806570a68983000ce7cb10c8b6fb7cabcfb8bafc664f74b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 21c | 5,027$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.81 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Yes | 31c | 3,137$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.12 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 2,060$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.7 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 2,007$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.58 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 78c | 1,871$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.11 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 1,683$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.56 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 69c | 1,153$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.34 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 77c | 691.5$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.61 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 78c | 512$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…9c3bbacked Yes | 18c | 491.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 78c | 480$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 27c | 464.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 23c | 433.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 429.71$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 313.25$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 5c | 264.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 9c | 233.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…a0aabacked No | 77c | 179.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 8c | 154.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 123.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 123.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 118.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…2218backed No | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23f…6c8abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…583abacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 76.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked Yes | 39c | 76.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 22c | 74.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 69.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…c60fbacked Yes | 39c | 59.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Yes | 23c | 50.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…8703backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…67e1backed Yes | 39c | 39.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…787ebacked No | 76c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed No | 80c | 36.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 31.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 69c | 30.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 78cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 79c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed No | 78c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed No | 70c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kuopion PS vs. FK Vardar Skopje end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Vardar Skopje win on 2026-07-14?Yes won
- Will Kuopion PS win on 2026-07-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.