WNBA · resolved market
Dream vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b1d335cfa85acb18e817a7eb4d4104d3ca3c208c3117cae758f154f20cf0f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dreamof Dream, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69cd…3dbebacked Mercury | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Dream | 29c | 7,041$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dream | 73c | 5,840$4,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.83 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 54c | 4,028$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.78 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Dream | 28c | 3,797$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.58 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Mercury | 73c | 3,161$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,298.94 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mercury | 43c | 2,241$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.88 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 72c | 1,845$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 53c | 1,781$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.9 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 63c | 1,400$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Dream | 61c | 1,273$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.4 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Dream | 45c | 1,087$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.76 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Dream | 26c | 1,032$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.91 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Mercury | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Mercury | 75c | 995.79$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.51per pick | 65cpaid | -73%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Mercury | 73c | 930.6$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.01 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Dream | 46c | 908.77$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.04 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Dream | 35c | 779.03$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.43 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Dream | 25c | 738.54$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.91 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Mercury | 43c | 643.85$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 36c | 575.44$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Dream | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 71c | 493$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.03 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Mercury | 74c | 413.4$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Dream | 30c | 400$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dream | 27c | 370$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…c510backed Mercury | 73c | 352.55$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Dream | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Dream | 37c | 275$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Mercury | 4c | 251$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Dream | 26c | 219.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Mercury | 72c | 218$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mercury | 69c | 211$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Dream | 61c | 164.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Dream | 61c | 161.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Mercury | 59c | 157.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Dream | 28c | 134$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mercury | 73c | 115.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 40c | 115.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Dream | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Mercury | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Dream | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Dream | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Mercury | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mercury | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Dream | 27c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Dream | 42c | 50.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Mercury | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Dream | 72c | 43.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Dream | 78c | 42.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Dream | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Dream | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Dream | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Dream | 28c | 37.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mercury | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.