World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b3537ec9e78d2a5dadaefdb63acad07507a00a93ab08257728119ad5027a70c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 2,083$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 5c | 2,060$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,234$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.98 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 506.18$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.67 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 403.84$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 34c | 380.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 44c | 337.51$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 18c | 270.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 15c | 243.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.11 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 223.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 219.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 16c | 212.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 12c | 189.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked No | 50c | 188$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 186.54$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 49c | 183.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 50c | 183.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 50c | 175.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 173.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 64c | 172.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 163.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.32 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 161.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 158.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 79c | 156.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 11c | 154.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.16 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 144.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 63c | 132.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 120.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 10c | 119.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 59c | 118.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 114.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 101.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 65c | 101.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 50c | 100.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 59c | 97.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 92.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 92.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 17c | 89.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 85.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 85.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 74c | 76.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 76.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed No | 50c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 25c | 72.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 55c | 72.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 58c | 71.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 69.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…db24backed No | 70c | 67.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 64.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 58.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 57.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked No | 78c | 56.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 39c | 55.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 52c | 50.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 46.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 43.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 43.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 42.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 57c | 40.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 38c | 40.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 45c | 39.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 71c | 36.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…dc62backed No | 78c | 34.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 66c | 33.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 38c | 33.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 57c | 32.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked No | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 28.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 35c | 28.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf870…99e6backed No | 52c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 66c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 19.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.