World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07dffd33e640bbed207c11233c3e73e7ec580bc27b46feddd1eae5097f933b71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 1,171$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.83 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…6871backed Yes | 46c | 862.27$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 691.81$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.36 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 476.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 441.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 426.01$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 413.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.42 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 36c | 410.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 404.18$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 399.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 40c | 305$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 59c | 253.74$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 50c | 229.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.03 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 48c | 215.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 48c | 178.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 176$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 174.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 173.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 173$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 163.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 161.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 153$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 8c | 150.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 147.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 49c | 144$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 71c | 141.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 42c | 128.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 118.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 48c | 116.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 113.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 107.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 51c | 106.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 102.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 49c | 93.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 46c | 88.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 88.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 86.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 52c | 86.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 85.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…7807backed Yes | 35c | 84.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 81.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 79.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 43c | 79.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 79.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 77.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 76.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 51c | 75.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 75.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 53c | 75.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 47c | 66.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 65.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 36c | 65.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 49c | 60.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 41c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed No | 53c | 58.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 57.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 40c | 57.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 50c | 55.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 44c | 55.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 58c | 54.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 54c | 54.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 50.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…0e8cbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 52c | 49.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 55c | 48.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 48.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 39c | 46.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 40.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 48c | 39.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 37.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 35.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.