Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1f561301e55361e9199ae925a433e1e6c71641149ff849401d5b41aba9fea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 9c | 8,743$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.97 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,077$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.86 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 9c | 5,453$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 3c | 5,049$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 4,378$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 17c | 4,081$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.33 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 8c | 2,700$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 2,570$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 2,154$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,979$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 9c | 1,950$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 11c | 1,875$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.44 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 43c | 1,715$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 17c | 1,694$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.55 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 1,350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 1,222$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,104$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 13c | 1,080$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…e964backed Yes | 10c | 943$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 4c | 900$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 734.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418e…8984backed Yes | 13c | 726.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 14c | 661.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…b5a9backed Yes | 15c | 658.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 36c | 592.75$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.78 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 5c | 574.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…c0aebacked Yes | 22c | 564.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 17c | 543.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 11c | 536.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 6c | 520$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 8c | 486.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 7c | 476.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ab8cbacked Yes | 16c | 466.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dac…02f2backed Yes | 3c | 419.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 5c | 410.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 401.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…7ba5backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 10c | 383.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 5c | 349.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…06d2backed Yes | 7c | 344.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 11c | 343.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 8c | 326.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 320.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 317.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 17c | 313.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 7c | 312.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 17c | 298.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…d86abacked Yes | 12c | 288.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 7c | 284.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 10c | 277.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 273.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +448.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 79c | 270$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 4c | 238.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…11d0backed Yes | 18c | 232.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 10c | 208.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…7838backed Yes | 6c | 202.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 10c | 202$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 15c | 201.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…9f28backed Yes | 6c | 186.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 6c | 180.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 9c | 179.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 11c | 175.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 7c | 150.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…5b8abacked Yes | 14c | 144.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 14c | 134.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 13c | 118.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257f…dc4cbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…94d5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 29c | 83.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 22-29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.