Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc7d2b2420253b5fb3813f7d2d28070f23ea1d371a1a2a12c0bed96dbd99acd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,255$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.16 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 5c | 5,090$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.43 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 21c | 4,137$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.04 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 4,073$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 4,072$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 7c | 3,175$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.31 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.62 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 22c | 2,282$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,998$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 20c | 1,912$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,903$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 16c | 1,760$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,621$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.39 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,536$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,494$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.21 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 12c | 1,246$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 13c | 1,148$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,148$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 6c | 1,093$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 21c | 1,043$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 25c | 1,001$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.91 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 973.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 17c | 942.47$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 727.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 27c | 719.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.63 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 19c | 696.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 39c | 642.36$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 30c | 561$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 13c | 526.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 9c | 461.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 4c | 414.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 410.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 23c | 400$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 375.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…f1bfbacked Yes | 43c | 374.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +516.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 19c | 363.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 21c | 350$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 16c | 349.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed Yes | 34c | 335.59$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…b3a4backed Yes | 16c | 312.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 61c | 301.07$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 14c | 297.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 21c | 250.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 249.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 21c | 242.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 23c | 236.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…99d1backed Yes | 40c | 215.14$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 30c | 200.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…94d5backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 15c | 195.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…05adbacked Yes | 16c | 187.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 15c | 151.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 40c | 151.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 20c | 149.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 145.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…8cdabacked Yes | 28c | 144.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…5e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 132.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 24c | 125.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 34c | 118.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 117.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 18c | 112.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…11d0backed Yes | 24c | 109.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 32c | 103.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…f818backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 39c | 101.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 98.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…2adfbacked Yes | 37c | 96.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b27…76a1backed No | 66c | 95.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab1…6afbbacked Yes | 43c | 95.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…c0aebacked Yes | 36c | 94.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…f530backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…28f0backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 30c | 70.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc8…7586backed Yes | 17c | 67.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…730fbacked Yes | 22c | 66.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 24c | 62.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 78c | 56.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 27c | 50.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…29f3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 66c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 22-29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.