Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67997a6cc5f0e410eea8b66de73f285e9cfc3cad44b0ef8489009d09cb688dcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 5c | 9,775$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.5 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 6,406$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.05 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 7c | 6,103$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.01 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 14c | 5,397$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.31 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 18c | 5,181$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.05 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 2,698$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 22c | 2,673$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.07 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 21c | 2,373$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 2,181$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.45 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 21c | 1,841$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 1,759$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 18c | 1,694$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.61 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,572$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 1,456$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 1,454$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…2ba7backed No | 71c | 1,190$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 1,189$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 13c | 1,085$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 18c | 1,040$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…b1a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 28c | 979.42$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 899.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 21c | 803$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…730fbacked Yes | 27c | 663.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 8c | 639$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…3076backed No | 80c | 600$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab6…fc35backed Yes | 20c | 600$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 20c | 585.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 15c | 557.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 4c | 539.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 9c | 529.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 25c | 507.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 500.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 30c | 477.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 17c | 476.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 25c | 466.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 14c | 458.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 425$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…f1bfbacked Yes | 15c | 394.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +516.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 77c | 392$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 14c | 391.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…94d5backed Yes | 14c | 380.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 35c | 379.11$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…270ebacked Yes | 21c | 376.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 20c | 374.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 16c | 364.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…11d0backed Yes | 21c | 364.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 11c | 360.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…086fbacked No | 69c | 350$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b1…f402backed Yes | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 43c | 348.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 17c | 344.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 19c | 342.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed Yes | 6c | 331.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 8c | 319.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 21c | 311.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 39c | 300.34$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 26c | 286.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 42c | 283.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 21c | 280.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 13c | 264.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 15c | 256.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 6c | 254.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a6…772ebacked Yes | 40c | 253.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed No | 66c | 234.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 210.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 39c | 206.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 33c | 204.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 13c | 204.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 15c | 195.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 21c | 183$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Yes | 41c | 182.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…00f3backed No | 68c | 170$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce56…b048backed Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 168.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 14c | 158.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 33c | 151.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 14c | 145.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 18c | 135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 25c | 133.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 21c | 128.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 120.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 29c | 109.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 26c | 105.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…117ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd340…27e4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab5…485bbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…95cbbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…8cdabacked Yes | 43c | 93.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 27c | 85.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…79c3backed No | 67c | 85.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…d5dabacked Yes | 41c | 85.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 22-29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 22-29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.