Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c24ed56317568d12ba611d17283aa994627dc42ab809ca5782db9a5af6fb0df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 77c | 8,456$6,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.49 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 14c | 6,265$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400.22 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 15c | 5,872$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,984.04 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 21c | 3,864$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.66 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 3,821$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,567.79 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 36c | 3,609$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…55a3backed Yes | 70c | 2,873$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 24c | 2,696$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.08 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 14c | 2,531$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.81 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 32c | 2,278$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,868$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 1,776$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.89 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…1582backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +253.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked No | 4c | 1,282$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 27c | 1,277$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.78 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 16c | 1,194$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.02 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 1,194$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.53 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 11c | 1,094$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 35c | 892.34$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.07 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 23c | 886.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.01 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 19c | 845.42$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 819$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.23 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 7c | 799.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.98 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 76c | 766.35$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 9c | 751.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.39 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 50c | 737$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.13 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 46c | 706.53$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.61 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…6bd8backed Yes | 70c | 700.14$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…b5a9backed Yes | 59c | 683.72$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 36c | 649.98$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 20c | 643.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.86 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 11c | 610.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 11c | 607.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.84 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 34c | 604$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.01 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…e964backed Yes | 18c | 530.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 4c | 509.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…f1bfbacked Yes | 4c | 493.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +516.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 477$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.26 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 41c | 466.08$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 401.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.77 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 15c | 400$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed No | 66c | 400$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 35c | 358.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.5 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 30c | 307.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 16c | 306.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.71 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…7838backed Yes | 29c | 305.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 64c | 305.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…117ebacked No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 7c | 294.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.86 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 68c | 294.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 44c | 280.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked Yes | 67c | 279.74$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 13c | 279.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.27 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 15c | 278.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.76 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed Yes | 57c | 277.27$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 25c | 236.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…d90cbacked Yes | 77c | 232.34$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 12c | 230$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 9c | 225$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 20c | 223.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 27c | 221.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.91 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 14c | 219.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 8c | 218.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 61c | 217.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…086fbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 199.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.83 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 14c | 195.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 34c | 178.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 11c | 176$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 12c | 171.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…c0aebacked Yes | 57c | 162.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…06d2backed Yes | 21c | 151.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 35c | 145.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 133.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +448.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 11c | 131.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…4eb5backed Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…2f32backed Yes | 9c | 130$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +276.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…fc1dbacked Yes | 40c | 125.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7fb8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…5b8abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 10c | 120.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 44c | 114.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 106.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 16c | 103.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…d695backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…fde2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cf…d0e6backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…95cbbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…fedcbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 22-29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.