Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d4fbaa0c877461a53dba148f09f13ca11cdce2b4c1c24b15023e62a63286526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,820$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.64 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…ab6bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,097$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 23c | 11,828$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.19 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 10,728$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.43 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 70c | 8,391$5,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.64 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,776$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 5c | 6,200$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 5,243$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 6c | 4,930$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 4,579$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.41 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 28c | 4,069$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.13 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 29c | 3,611$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.05 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,200$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…e7f7backed Yes | 0c | 3,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 13c | 2,562$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 18c | 2,414$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.1 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 22c | 2,276$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.12 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 1c | 2,142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 61c | 2,000$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 1,830$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 34c | 1,777$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd649…c561backed No | 62c | 1,772$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 3c | 1,770$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 47c | 1,687$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,592$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 16c | 1,565$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 32c | 1,480$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.86 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,361$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 35c | 1,292$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.18 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 28c | 1,228$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.73 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 15c | 1,116$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 1,079$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.52 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 46c | 1,054$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.99 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 74c | 1,045$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.98 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,028$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 73c | 950.38$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.42 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 39c | 853.64$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.91 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…11d0backed Yes | 19c | 753.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 12c | 698.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 26c | 691.97$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 29c | 690.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 63c | 655.31$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.09 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 19c | 561.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 31c | 547.8$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 79c | 547.45$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 27c | 519.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…f1bfbacked Yes | 42c | 511.39$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +516.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…1194backed Yes | 35c | 508.24$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed Yes | 5c | 504$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…730fbacked Yes | 37c | 499.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…f818backed Yes | 2c | 485.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 471.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…c863backed Yes | 14c | 447.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 25c | 438.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked Yes | 48c | 428.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 45c | 398$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 8c | 395.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 35c | 364.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 4c | 362.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 355$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked No | 75c | 352.81$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Yes | 28c | 316$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 304.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 20c | 304.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 35c | 302.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 30c | 301.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…99d1backed Yes | 43c | 300.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 27c | 278.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 18c | 273.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 37c | 269.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…05adbacked Yes | 29c | 255.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 30c | 245.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Yes | 33c | 229.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…7d84backed Yes | 44c | 228.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 44c | 227.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 7c | 216.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 5c | 211.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 24c | 203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 61c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 31c | 198.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 31c | 195.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…0f84backed Yes | 11c | 180.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 29c | 171.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 42c | 160.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 45c | 160.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…f530backed Yes | 27c | 160$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…f0c2backed Yes | 12c | 154.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 22c | 150.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…f634backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…4e86backed Yes | 44c | 148.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 13c | 148.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes | 51c | 144.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 41c | 142.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 22-29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 22-29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.