NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc90a9a5c64f606ab7deaafbbfa2701298d2715ca2f90a94ca4199aa3a0a813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3a…00d4backed Bulls | 44c | 10,150$4,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,466 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…2a78backed Raptors | 56c | 5,597$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…688cbacked Raptors | 56c | 2,999$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Raptors | 56c | 1,582$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.8 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…733fbacked Raptors | 56c | 1,554$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 43c | 1,275$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls | 31c | 1,181$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.58 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls | 44c | 1,003$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 43c | 904.54$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Raptors | 56c | 535.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Raptors | 57c | 466.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…0fb5backed Raptors | 55c | 340$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors | 55c | 313.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bulls | 44c | 294.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Raptors | 57c | 270$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Raptors | 54c | 267$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 57c | 264.87$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 45c | 218.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls | 44c | 204.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 45c | 179.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Raptors | 60c | 167.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Raptors | 54c | 133$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bulls | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bulls | 37c | 114.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 45c | 112.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Bulls | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Bulls | 42c | 100.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Raptors | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Raptors | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Bulls | 36c | 84.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Raptors | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Raptors | 51c | 79.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bulls | 50c | 74.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Raptors | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Raptors | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…3d1fbacked Bulls | 30c | 58.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Bulls | 43c | 48.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Raptors | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Raptors | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Bulls | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Raptors | 67c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 384 | 53.4%205 W · 179 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Bulls | 43c | 36.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bulls | 37c | 36.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Bulls | 44c | 35.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…4b40backed Raptors | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Bulls | 46c | 30.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Raptors | 56c | 30.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Raptors | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Raptors | 71c | 29.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Raptors | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Bulls | 45c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bulls | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…0024backed Raptors | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)this page
- Anfernee Simons: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anfernee Simons: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Raptors vs. BullsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.