MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df7a564513f3ed13f9f33efdb64b79c34c4a5aab4814916e4f599a4c31e43f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 52c | 39,619$20,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,564.94 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 14,491$6,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,548.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 50c | 12,567$6,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,299.24 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 11,642$5,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,053.72 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 50c | 10,569$5,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,284.5 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 7,389$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,813.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 5,389$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,206.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 5,376$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,704.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 4,842$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 4,664$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 3,239$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 52c | 2,076$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.39 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 1,688$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,281$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 645.78$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 48c | 632.1$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.69 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 335.16$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 326$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 55c | 293.24$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 40c | 203.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 41c | 198.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 49c | 173.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 130.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 129.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 67c | 119.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 118.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 118$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 109$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 40c | 91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 47c | 86.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 50c | 74.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 74.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 68.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 37c | 64.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 54c | 50.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 56c | 45.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6975…06e1backed Over | 46c | 30.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 48c | 23.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 56c | 19.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.