MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a71be66887fe27655113f93a01ec5c58ac8d1eabda3eb8f9086cd9b9bc3c6ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked New York Mets | 53c | 65,489$35,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,488.9 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 33,333$15,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,666.51 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 28,071$13,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,127.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 7,672$3,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,684.11 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 6,534$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed New York Mets | 54c | 6,240$3,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 4,097$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.63 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 3,922$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 52c | 3,911$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 2,948$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 45c | 2,443$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 43c | 2,276$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked New York Mets | 64c | 1,393$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.48 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked New York Mets | 54c | 987$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.02 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 56c | 956.06$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 54c | 910.71$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 800$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 452$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.83 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 53c | 396.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.27 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked New York Mets | 53c | 355$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 339.94$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 310.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed New York Mets | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 240.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 221.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 53c | 211.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 202.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed New York Mets | 56c | 180.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 79c | 179.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 160$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 77c | 156$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed New York Mets | 44c | 137.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked New York Mets | 45c | 126.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 125.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked New York Mets | 45c | 117.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 57c | 109.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked New York Mets | 53c | 103.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked New York Mets | 53c | 102.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked New York Mets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 82.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked New York Mets | 67c | 64.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 50c | 60.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed New York Mets | 46c | 54.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed New York Mets | 22c | 54.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked New York Mets | 48c | 53.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Mets | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 47.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 717 | 50.1%359 W · 358 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed New York Mets | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed New York Mets | 28c | 44.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 43.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed New York Mets | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked New York Mets | 61c | 36.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 28.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed New York Mets | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 21.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fcb4backed New York Mets | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed New York Mets | 52c | 19.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.