WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Storm
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6c4d4f0374aaff485a4a6f29d2fd5f82a3342b8f74667a6a5b138fe4d5d9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Storm | 56c | 16,042$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mercury | 43c | 7,733$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,404.62 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Mercury | 45c | 3,300$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…b7eabacked Mercury | 57c | 3,232$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 49c | 2,550$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.99 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Storm | 47c | 2,022$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.12 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mercury | 66c | 1,542$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.34 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Storm | 29c | 1,326$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.49 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Storm | 27c | 1,267$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Mercury | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…96b5backed Storm | 51c | 978.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +286.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Storm | 53c | 829.07$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.58 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Storm | 5c | 766.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mercury | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mercury | 48c | 599.99$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Mercury | 53c | 539.3$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Mercury | 59c | 511.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Storm | 30c | 508.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Storm | 41c | 505.68$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…7a36backed Storm | 52c | 483.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…066dbacked Storm | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Storm | 52c | 405.68$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Mercury | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Mercury | 76c | 386.62$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Storm | 42c | 373.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Mercury | 48c | 360.31$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.36 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 48c | 349.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.68 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Storm | 55c | 336.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mercury | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Storm | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Mercury | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Storm | 51c | 298$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Storm | 44c | 294.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Mercury | 59c | 294$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Mercury | 52c | 271.06$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Storm | 37c | 257$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Storm | 44c | 241.79$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 67c | 233$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Mercury | 47c | 214.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Mercury | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Storm | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mercury | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 51c | 198.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Storm | 36c | 187.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed Mercury | 64c | 181.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Storm | 45c | 166.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Storm | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Mercury | 65c | 132.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…0caabacked Mercury | 67c | 115.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Mercury | 48c | 104.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Storm | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Storm | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Mercury | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Storm | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Mercury | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Storm | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Mercury | 73c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…23c9backed Mercury | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…0bb1backed Storm | 44c | 80.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Storm | 35c | 79.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Mercury | 56c | 73.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Mercury | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…ba35backed Mercury | 61c | 65.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Storm | 31c | 64.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…b49cbacked Mercury | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Mercury | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6a…3d68backed Storm | 54c | 46.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked Storm | 55c | 45.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Mercury | 70c | 42.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Mercury | 40c | 41.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Storm | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Storm | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…8c54backed Mercury | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fee…6d03backed Mercury | 48c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…1eb6backed Mercury | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Mercury | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed Storm | 43c | 23.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Mercury | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…a8eebacked Mercury | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 57c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…9bb6backed Mercury | 52c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.