TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Once Upon A Team vs Myth Esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Myth Esportsof Once Upon A Team, Myth Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,779 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf163…ca34backed Myth Esports48c3,519$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.271,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe197…71ebbacked Once Upon A Team73c2,822$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.4128145.9%129 W · 152 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Myth Esports61c1,915$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.872,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Once Upon A Team30c1,840$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.9937647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…1e59backed Once Upon A Team36c1,567$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x739a…a4d2backed Once Upon A Team61c1,468$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Myth Esports71c1,419$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.631,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Myth Esports68c1,114$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.481,21954.5%664 W · 555 L+52.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Once Upon A Team71c1,011$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.361,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Once Upon A Team33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33042149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Once Upon A Team32c940$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.830360.7%184 W · 119 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Myth Esports78c900$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.282,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e79…1763backed Myth Esports24c844.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Once Upon A Team72c833.32$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.0759459.1%351 W · 243 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Myth Esports50c772.79$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.561055.7%340 W · 270 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Myth Esports55c715$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.161,65846.9%777 W · 881 L-25.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Once Upon A Team37c666.98$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6832045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Myth Esports60c642.45$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4549451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe8…a3ebbacked Once Upon A Team47c640.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Once Upon A Team15c609.77$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0722838.6%88 W · 140 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Myth Esports58c568.24$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.969344.1%41 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Once Upon A Team42c567.38$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.392,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Myth Esports29c563.21$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.741227.4%113 W · 299 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Myth Esports49c560$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3714655.5%81 W · 65 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Once Upon A Team38c538.13$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.821,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf21…d34abacked Myth Esports54c530.99$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.314461.8%89 W · 55 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Once Upon A Team36c520.58$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.371,85239.8%738 W · 1,114 L-64.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked Once Upon A Team60c515.64$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.384751.1%24 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Myth Esports45c513.29$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.452,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Once Upon A Team59c487.35$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4428544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Once Upon A Team32c470.53$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.571,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Myth Esports61c450.27$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.7936541.9%153 W · 212 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Once Upon A Team54c436.36$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.717537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Myth Esports68c411.76$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.763154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Myth Esports61c400.61$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6121540%86 W · 129 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked Once Upon A Team16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644837.5%18 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Once Upon A Team18c399$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5958042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Myth Esports47c394.9$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.981,08546.2%501 W · 584 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Once Upon A Team68c380.88$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25915757.3%90 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…5267backed Myth Esports63c375.23$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0416171.4%115 W · 46 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaf2…dfa9backed Myth Esports55c365.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5130453.3%162 W · 142 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Myth Esports48c354$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.88362.7%52 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Once Upon A Team32c337.84$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8214441.7%60 W · 84 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96fe…e78cbacked Once Upon A Team26c326.92$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Myth Esports70c301.5$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.451,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc11…4b4abacked Once Upon A Team5c300.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03250%0 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Myth Esports64c292.05$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.147742.9%33 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed Once Upon A Team35c269.18$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5854932.4%178 W · 371 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Myth Esports31c259.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.981,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Once Upon A Team49c253.87$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.48839.8%35 W · 53 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Once Upon A Team16c252.04$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1217738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…c994backed Myth Esports57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c6…19e2backed Once Upon A Team21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.53834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Once Upon A Team80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027865.8%183 W · 95 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…b953backed Once Upon A Team21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Once Upon A Team54c242.36$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.541,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Once Upon A Team21c240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.413830.4%42 W · 96 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Once Upon A Team21c240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.421940.6%89 W · 130 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Once Upon A Team66c239.19$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7270757%403 W · 304 L+35.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Myth Esports34c239.12$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1769841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Once Upon A Team51c232.97$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2422955.5%127 W · 102 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Myth Esports58c223.09$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0920739.1%81 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Once Upon A Team21c216.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4819637.8%74 W · 122 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Myth Esports71c213.72$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7662158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Myth Esports64c211.05$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.997847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Myth Esports47c208.73$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.711,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Once Upon A Team68c203.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8223636.4%86 W · 150 L-13.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed Once Upon A Team25c200.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8311752.1%61 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed Once Upon A Team21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4216243.8%71 W · 91 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed Once Upon A Team21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4219846%91 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x029e…b19cbacked Once Upon A Team21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…b6d7backed Once Upon A Team59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1183243.8%14 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2973…ef36backed Once Upon A Team11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed Once Upon A Team39c194$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6613036.2%47 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Once Upon A Team60c183.34$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1340055.8%223 W · 177 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Myth Esports65c165.4$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.891,39944.9%628 W · 771 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Myth Esports49c163.05$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9316141.6%67 W · 94 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Myth Esports32c162.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0468915.2%105 W · 584 L-31.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Myth Esports79c160.78$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.383,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc1d…9332backed Myth Esports40c157.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.094045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed Myth Esports64c155.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3917457.5%100 W · 74 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc56…809bbacked Once Upon A Team65c154.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed Myth Esports31c154.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1210146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Once Upon A Team75c154.35$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0142137.5%158 W · 263 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Myth Esports66c152.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.210034%34 W · 66 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Once Upon A Team59c149.82$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.682,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Myth Esports32c147$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9616919.5%33 W · 136 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc0…7faabacked Once Upon A Team40c146.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5811329.2%33 W · 80 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Once Upon A Team38c145.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.861,47643.6%643 W · 833 L-31.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180a…bd66backed Once Upon A Team35c143.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012659.5%75 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Myth Esports49c143.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Once Upon A Team21c142.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307648.7%37 W · 39 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5bd…226cbacked Once Upon A Team21c142.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked Myth Esports52c141.5$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.924548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Once Upon A Team35c139$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2112430.6%38 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cba…351cbacked Once Upon A Team65c138.57$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Myth Esports71c137.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7746762.3%291 W · 176 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Myth Esports70c137.16$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b6e…1c7cbacked Myth Esports62c129.83$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.835541.8%23 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Once Upon A Team30c125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71,24439.7%494 W · 750 L-69.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.