TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Mets vs. Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Metsof Mets, Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,145,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,151,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,145,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Marlins45c878,271$395,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395,222.0838043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mets55c246,181$135,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,781.421,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Mets55c189,700$104,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,36511759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Mets55c119,000$65,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,549.9744456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Marlins45c100,929$45,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,128.759440.4%38 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Mets55c99,948$54,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,976.4755053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Mets55c80,000$44,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,00048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mets55c74,563$40,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,815.841,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Mets55c50,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,5006058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Marlins46c49,786$22,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,901.376547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Mets56c30,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,20038047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Mets56c25,385$14,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,261.5538751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Mets56c17,004$9,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,511.777058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Mets56c12,222$6,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,377.6830255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mets60c11,204$6,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.751,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mets56c10,022$5,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.6725453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Mets54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60034245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mets55c9,500$5,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2751,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Mets56c9,222$5,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,057.6898149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Mets56c8,165$4,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,592.663152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Mets56c7,500$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3006350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Mets55c5,555$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.758464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Mets56c4,536$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.716357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mets55c3,182$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.822,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins23c2,673$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.482,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Mets56c2,182$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.1424154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Marlins44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Mets56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8805455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Mets56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7111554.8%63 W · 52 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Marlins45c1,400$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63016349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Mets55c1,095$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.7520748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Marlins44c1,072$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.6850843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Marlins21c1,067$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.671,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Marlins48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mets52c1,030$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.531,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Marlins3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30857.1%6 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins46c999.98$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Marlins22c913.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006417.2%11 W · 53 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Marlins44c737$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.2844643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fec…fc7bbacked Marlins3c699.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201022.9%3 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Marlins45c672.24$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.511,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mets55c626.17$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.381,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Marlins44c616$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.0412436.3%45 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Marlins43c580.66$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6851347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Mets55c508.89$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.897041.4%29 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Mets55c500$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.146833.8%23 W · 45 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Mets56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2206556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins45c499.98$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Marlins19c447.46$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7370841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Mets59c425.12$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.124057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de9…ee25backed Marlins24c422.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac90…1882backed Marlins44c410$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.42937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Mets55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6456351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Mets56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.142441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Mets57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8863052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Mets73c346.54$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2578445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins39c322.22$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12595930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Marlins13c315.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4038245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Mets55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13566751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Marlins46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13878454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mets65c295$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…0856backed Mets68c294.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089d…c7c9backed Marlins12c293$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7310713.1%14 W · 93 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Marlins20c286.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.081,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Mets70c285.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c9f…9f71backed Mets57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Mets56c257.71$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7157545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Mets56c246.86$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6211550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…120abacked Mets55c242.92$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.312147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mets59c239.92$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.578,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Mets54c231.14$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.325947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c6…5db4backed Marlins46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Marlins44c210$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Marlins47c209$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.232,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…7942backed Mets56c208.27$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.641770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Mets55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins29c195.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.154,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Mets56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5761346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Marlins33c155.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.244242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Mets56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.25935.6%21 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Mets56c133.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9314945%67 W · 82 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Mets53c112.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.91,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf351…5364backed Mets65c112.31$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.312152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e5…c3d4backed Marlins45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014459%85 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d74…2759backed Mets54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4623545.1%106 W · 129 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d93…8dfabacked Marlins45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1347…5503backed Marlins45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Mets56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4424444.3%108 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Marlins34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410636.8%39 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Marlins45c99.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe837…7b55backed Marlins45c93.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af5…c533backed Marlins45c91.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.014946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Mets56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2947850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…73fdbacked Mets56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.293745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671f…af9cbacked Mets56c88.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.933063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Marlins30c83.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.267341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Mets53c80.66$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9266250.2%332 W · 330 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mets55c80.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.631,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Marlins45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3633140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Marlins19c73.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0312450%62 W · 62 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.