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WNBA · resolved market

Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Toronto Tempo21c10,500$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.319318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Tempo6c7,409$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.5676142.7%325 W · 436 L-19.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo31c6,412$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.651,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a9…e073backed Toronto Tempo29c6,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7402941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Dream70c5,014$3,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.4941051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream63c4,009$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.121,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked Atlanta Dream70c2,876$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.655257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo52c2,481$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.2885158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Atlanta Dream72c2,383$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.162751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Dream80c2,175$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.331,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Toronto Tempo2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Atlanta Dream53c1,890$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.296956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Dream71c1,770$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.4685948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…6e68backed Toronto Tempo6c1,543$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Atlanta Dream53c1,449$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.444946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Toronto Tempo21c1,271$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.691637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo30c977.52$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0432749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Toronto Tempo28c892$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7614942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Toronto Tempo29c876.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Toronto Tempo29c862.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Toronto Tempo17c856$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6334826.4%92 W · 256 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb5…1d5bbacked Toronto Tempo8c843.17$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.282846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Dream71c683.51$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4793248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Dream72c636.72$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3123245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Toronto Tempo9c633.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5790%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x886f…aa8fbacked Toronto Tempo32c615.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Toronto Tempo17c606.02$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.935431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Dream69c601.78$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5539150.4%197 W · 194 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0791…385bbacked Toronto Tempo30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Toronto Tempo29c549.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510337.9%39 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Toronto Tempo61c539$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.755538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Dream71c537.58$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4590449.4%447 W · 457 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Atlanta Dream58c531.33$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.0316633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Toronto Tempo2c506.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Atlanta Dream57c504.98$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.8412045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Atlanta Dream66c457.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.582777.8%21 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Toronto Tempo41c434.48$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1806237.1%23 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Atlanta Dream71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.58733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Toronto Tempo36c347.67$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4410634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Tempo24c336.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2432148.6%156 W · 165 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Atlanta Dream66c304.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.742572%18 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d53…149cbacked Toronto Tempo20c304.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6923467.5%158 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca09…d50ebacked Atlanta Dream40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Toronto Tempo47c247.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1414947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Atlanta Dream71c232.39$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.392680.8%21 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ab…7d30backed Toronto Tempo7c229.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Toronto Tempo31c225.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.773938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…667dbacked Toronto Tempo29c217.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.032867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Toronto Tempo10c214$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1811941.2%49 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0503…b938backed Toronto Tempo23c205.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.612626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Toronto Tempo32c199.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Toronto Tempo8c186.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523234.5%80 W · 152 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8a…9c2fbacked Toronto Tempo30c178.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.652429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Toronto Tempo17c177$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6321546.5%100 W · 115 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Tempo57c173.19$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.722951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Atlanta Dream72c166.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1142046.7%196 W · 224 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Atlanta Dream67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2511353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd981…c309backed Atlanta Dream70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.862462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf903…de2fbacked Toronto Tempo15c140.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.143243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Atlanta Dream71c140.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9415553.5%83 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf4…f4c3backed Atlanta Dream71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.854240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee0…1006backed Atlanta Dream73c136.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…85b6backed Toronto Tempo57c135.09$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Toronto Tempo27c121.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1318746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Toronto Tempo20c115$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23918.8%8 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Tempo36c106.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.635118.5%65 W · 286 L-49.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-57.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Atlanta Dream71c102.61$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.065642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Tempo57c86.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.377647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Atlanta Dream58c81.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5841446.6%193 W · 221 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Atlanta Dream62c81.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.063063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Toronto Tempo32c76.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2619231.8%61 W · 131 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Atlanta Dream40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4510237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e81…b4cebacked Atlanta Dream70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.439100%9 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35c9…bc74backed Atlanta Dream72c69.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2612651.6%65 W · 61 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Atlanta Dream45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.677441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0514…6131backed Atlanta Dream71c61.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Toronto Tempo37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.379938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcf…ad70backed Toronto Tempo53c58.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Tempo30c57.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9332047.8%153 W · 167 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Atlanta Dream45c56.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2710343.7%45 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Tempo28c56.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613622.8%31 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c30…4f5abacked Atlanta Dream68c56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Atlanta Dream79c55.37$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.515351%78 W · 75 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Atlanta Dream73c54.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7913346.6%62 W · 71 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20ad…30febacked Toronto Tempo43c52.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Tempo59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7212343.1%53 W · 70 L-11.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x43a8…d77fbacked Toronto Tempo47c49.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.181353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c58…79f7backed Toronto Tempo28c48.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d19…bf25backed Toronto Tempo61c47.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…2de1backed Toronto Tempo43c43.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ebe…2fdabacked Toronto Tempo30c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e99…2229backed Toronto Tempo61c40.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Atlanta Dream73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84951%25 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Toronto Tempo28c39.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Toronto Tempo32c39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Tempo29c37.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0171245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Toronto Tempo58c34.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0861242.3%259 W · 353 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Atlanta Dream42c30.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9510743.9%47 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Atlanta Dream70c30.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.043652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.