NBA · resolved market
Will the Sacramento Kings make the NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x931345c2c0a01fbfd0a1c9479b2eb707b948876f4232acef873cd7eb752b8797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 28,041$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 34c | 1,054$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.33 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 75c | 708.09$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 23c | 673.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 52c | 650$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 73c | 280.89$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…e9c0backed Yes | 27c | 165.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 107 | 24.3%26 W · 81 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 28c | 157.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 35c | 97.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88c…b990backed Yes | 39c | 91.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 50.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…cce7backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 75c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked No | 67c | 39.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 73c | 31.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15c…e6e4backed No | 80c | 29.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 69c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Sacramento Kings make the NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Brooklyn Nets make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Detroit Pistons make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Rockets make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Indiana Pacers make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the LA Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz make the NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.