NBA · resolved market
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af196c5898b1d7508e77a1fc5a01b3bb17d302ff89429c5d7f173029efd5943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x831b…eed5backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 41c | 800$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 21c | 685.06$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 26c | 650$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 78c | 620$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…4f30backed No | 51c | 610$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 37c | 585$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.83 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…3b62backed No | 26c | 507.14$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 68c | 441$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 69c | 438.63$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…c68fbacked No | 51c | 340$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 22c | 310.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 26c | 297.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 49c | 280.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked No | 70c | 261.95$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…212bbacked Yes | 49c | 260$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked No | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 65c | 245$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…af56backed Yes | 49c | 245$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f6…317cbacked Yes | 49c | 245$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 40c | 232$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 75c | 214.59$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 70c | 149.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked Yes | 49c | 145$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 36c | 135$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…686dbacked Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 23c | 125.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b316backed Yes | 50c | 123.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 105.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…38bbbacked Yes | 78c | 83.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…e9c0backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 107 | 24.3%26 W · 81 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…b5a1backed Yes | 78c | 71.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…835dbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…ae62backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 31c | 39.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 53c | 36.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 55c | 31.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…70b2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…428fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…5b7dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…7409backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Brooklyn Nets make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Detroit Pistons make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Rockets make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Indiana Pacers make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the LA Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz make the NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.