Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9480d4e456d36549493d85fb5e3cb722d82123fc3655303f11de20ae5b5a8bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 3,073$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.07 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1077…e6e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,326$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 882.29$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 37c | 871.54$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 391$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 321$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 203$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 65c | 200.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 164.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 142.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 63c | 142$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 137.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 136.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 130.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 41c | 115.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…94e5backed Yes | 24c | 83.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 75.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 65.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 40c | 57.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d1ccbacked No | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 64c | 55.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 20c | 51.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 63c | 39.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa8…e07abacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 35.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 34.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…1ad4backed Yes | 38c | 31.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…7265backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 61c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 68c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed No | 64c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.