Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd954a15d45bb7de346b51f5a2ea80682c286bc8487e4e520f676c385ec5bff5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 49c | 811.55$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.34 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 48c | 766.73$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.45 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 676.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 52c | 415$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 412.29$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 354.02$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 208.23$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 44c | 175.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 164.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 143.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 131.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 128$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 53c | 105.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 97.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 15c | 95.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 90.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…94e5backed Yes | 52c | 82.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 40c | 76.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 75.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 56c | 64.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 63c | 62.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 63c | 58.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 58.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…c7f8backed No | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 57c | 56.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc8…7158backed Yes | 58c | 56.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 63c | 55.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 53.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 43.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 40.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 52c | 39.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…1ef1backed Yes | 54c | 37.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 37.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 36.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 42c | 31.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 61c | 27.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 50c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 73c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 63c | 16.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…15c8backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.