TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Texas Longhorns vs. UCLA Bruins (W)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UCLA Bruinsof Texas Longhorns, UCLA Bruins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa89e…fb60backed UCLA Bruins63c5,143$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.69771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed UCLA Bruins57c4,251$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.84057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Texas Longhorns54c4,015$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.236127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked UCLA Bruins76c4,000$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9495556.4%31 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas Longhorns28c3,349$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.251,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3399…65a5backed Texas Longhorns45c2,996$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Texas Longhorns40c2,745$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.812,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas Longhorns42c2,611$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.194,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Texas Longhorns64c2,601$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed UCLA Bruins61c1,755$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.695352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed UCLA Bruins64c1,317$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.632,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…eda7backed UCLA Bruins60c1,118$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UCLA Bruins36c1,014$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.952,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Texas Longhorns9c964.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.084731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas Longhorns45c697.45$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.141,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked UCLA Bruins43c618.05$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.475843.1%25 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed UCLA Bruins53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Texas Longhorns16c581.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.463132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked UCLA Bruins41c579.65$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.67451.4%38 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+39.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Texas Longhorns13c562.2$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.57728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas Longhorns51c560.43$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.12,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Texas Longhorns54c487.28$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4561652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed UCLA Bruins40c482.29$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.493933.3%13 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked UCLA Bruins48c403.82$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.065944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed UCLA Bruins41c390.59$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.4515243.4%66 W · 86 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf89f…32b0backed UCLA Bruins50c390.51$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.52757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed UCLA Bruins61c333.65$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.527652.6%40 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Longhorns27c329.89$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.072181%17 W · 4 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick54cpaid+46.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc9b7…2300backed Texas Longhorns45c326.43$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Texas Longhorns52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Texas Longhorns63c293.34$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.89639.6%38 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked UCLA Bruins38c267.4$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7916053.8%86 W · 74 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…32bbbacked UCLA Bruins63c266.52$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.682369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc246…14c6backed UCLA Bruins46c261.46$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked Texas Longhorns38c238.01$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.965437%20 W · 34 L-7.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed UCLA Bruins68c235.05$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7219147.6%91 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Texas Longhorns55c224.76$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+66.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…e82ebacked UCLA Bruins44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed UCLA Bruins52c211.37$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.043,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Texas Longhorns29c204.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.365048%24 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x529f…ffd4backed UCLA Bruins44c200.41$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.221921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed UCLA Bruins45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11020642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Texas Longhorns6c191.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked UCLA Bruins73c185.36$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.521,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Texas Longhorns14c178.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5c…9edabacked UCLA Bruins72c160.75$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.892360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed UCLA Bruins57c150.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.281580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+41.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed UCLA Bruins37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.524432%78 W · 166 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9356…64a3backed Texas Longhorns52c144.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.27714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed UCLA Bruins43c138.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.741,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Texas Longhorns37c134.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.847140.8%29 W · 42 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3457…0161backed UCLA Bruins61c133.39$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.021580%12 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed UCLA Bruins65c123.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2219057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0324…fdbcbacked UCLA Bruins57c120.13$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.932458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Texas Longhorns24c118.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be6…512dbacked UCLA Bruins42c114.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ea8…077dbacked Texas Longhorns45c113.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.213243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed UCLA Bruins41c111.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.691656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Texas Longhorns45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3532246.6%150 W · 172 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed UCLA Bruins47c96.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.317656.6%43 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked UCLA Bruins57c92.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.371163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked UCLA Bruins59c91.32$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a47…fcf3backed UCLA Bruins37c89.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.087445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8140…aa34backed UCLA Bruins44c87.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.27785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb97…1d51backed Texas Longhorns57c68.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.971861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd797…a679backed Texas Longhorns56c66.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a8…259fbacked Texas Longhorns30c65.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2686…b389backed Texas Longhorns51c62.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed UCLA Bruins50c62.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.044240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6989…3dd3backed Texas Longhorns45c59.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Texas Longhorns49c56.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6322756.4%128 W · 99 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Texas Longhorns49c56.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6319454.6%106 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed UCLA Bruins39c51.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.643461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed UCLA Bruins70c51.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.291250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc539…5ec2backed Texas Longhorns41c51.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.232958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Texas Longhorns57c51.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4add…8f36backed UCLA Bruins58c50.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.184168.3%28 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed UCLA Bruins39c49.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1432652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…b81bbacked UCLA Bruins39c49.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed UCLA Bruins45c48.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7731646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked UCLA Bruins44c46.62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.037951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb812…076ebacked Texas Longhorns63c46.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked UCLA Bruins59c46.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.01955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed UCLA Bruins50c45.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.724346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5d…d375backed UCLA Bruins47c43.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.092941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed UCLA Bruins48c42.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.259554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d9…1041backed Texas Longhorns25c42.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba9…d704backed UCLA Bruins44c40.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Texas Longhorns50c40.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.062646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5913…3bbebacked UCLA Bruins45c39.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.967057.1%40 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7010…2cd6backed Texas Longhorns57c37.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+75.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Texas Longhorns59c35.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0511552.2%60 W · 55 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd479…be37backed UCLA Bruins40c35.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.014443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd421…8531backed UCLA Bruins56c34.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked UCLA Bruins37c33.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.177657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45db…08f3backed UCLA Bruins37c33.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+70.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cc…1958backed UCLA Bruins56c33.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Texas Longhorns54c29.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.911,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed UCLA Bruins43c29.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6815850%79 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bc…8d47backed UCLA Bruins65c29.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.