TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd797…a679

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: MLB, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 59 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT4544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$203
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$35.46
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.69
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Flyers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+124.9%+$47.09
Flyers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.03
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers backed Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.75
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$21.36
Golden Knights vs. Utahbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.49
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$53.11
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.67
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.24
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$16.55
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$31.22
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$40.18
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$13
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.59
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$17.35
Wild vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$11.75
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.64
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24.92
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$31.83
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$13.29
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$20.36
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$12.07
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$31.86
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$24.27
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$23.62
All 10 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.96
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+248.1%+$70.17
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.85
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.38
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$139
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. UCLA Bruins (W)backed South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.02
Texas Longhorns vs. UCLA Bruins (W)backed Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.99
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Connecticut Huskies (W)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.54
All 3 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$83.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.