TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Hurricanes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Flyers, Hurricanes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$857,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$912,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $857,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 701 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bec…b215backed Flyers30c149,420$44,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,279.0716442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Hurricanes71c56,012$39,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,310.5828749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Hurricanes70c43,000$30,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,9007545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers42c39,924$16,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,789.941,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Flyers29c20,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.9956649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers30c18,777$5,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,633.2267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Hurricanes61c18,656$11,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,275.8310745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Hurricanes70c14,285$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,285.644551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Hurricanes42c12,396$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,189.881,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Hurricanes53c12,000$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6403450%17 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc8backed Hurricanes71c11,972$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,471.83757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes70c11,910$8,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.5961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Hurricanes42c11,905$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,904.768946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Flyers58c11,500$6,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,669.9915448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes70c11,222$7,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.61,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Hurricanes70c10,634$7,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.2932151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Flyers30c10,215$3,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,064.354436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Hurricanes62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.931861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Hurricanes70c8,350$5,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5053351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…755bbacked Hurricanes70c7,950$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flyers48c7,561$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,594.551,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Flyers45c7,352$3,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333.5451045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Flyers47c7,168$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.5452172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Hurricanes58c7,096$4,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.4317750.8%90 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hurricanes69c7,086$4,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.731,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Hurricanes66c6,839$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.084555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Flyers54c6,835$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,724.642839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Hurricanes55c6,813$3,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.9319963.8%127 W · 72 L+27.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Hurricanes35c6,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90012838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Hurricanes71c6,000$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7402552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Flyers31c5,806$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Flyers39c5,676$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.6541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hurricanes53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.382564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Hurricanes53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.381250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Flyers39c5,528$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick58cpaid-78%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hurricanes70c5,330$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.121,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Flyers30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Flyers30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Flyers41c4,634$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.0127044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Flyers37c3,797$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.444139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers58c3,753$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.61,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Hurricanes59c3,753$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.5985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Flyers39c3,463$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.559157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Flyers39c3,453$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.4918452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171c…f0a0backed Flyers30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Hurricanes58c3,299$1,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.2433363.7%212 W · 121 L+44.3wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Hurricanes33c3,172$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.8935551%181 W · 174 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Flyers40c3,067$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.3933837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Flyers46c3,062$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.1189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Flyers47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Flyers36c2,976$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.4213333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5695…f8edbacked Hurricanes43c2,975$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+47%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Hurricanes42c2,810$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.8233234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Hurricanes42c2,763$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.167038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Hurricanes40c2,697$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.888445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hurricanes50c2,634$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.232,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Hurricanes62c2,581$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.651353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Hurricanes70c2,571$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flyers49c2,539$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.013,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3082…9b55backed Hurricanes71c2,535$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.213132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Hurricanes50c2,531$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.1911251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Hurricanes57c2,439$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.3214151.8%73 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Hurricanes61c2,353$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.675563.6%35 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4240…7a20backed Hurricanes64c2,344$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Hurricanes44c2,250$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.9930946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Flyers39c2,230$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.489260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Hurricanes40c2,073$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.0210650%53 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Hurricanes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.982962.1%18 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Hurricanes53c1,884$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.7917353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Flyers46c1,872$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.044459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Hurricanes48c1,861$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.831,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked Flyers52c1,827$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Hurricanes62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.92552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Hurricanes56c1,560$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.6227037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Hurricanes62c1,552$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.3922250%111 W · 111 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Flyers30c1,503$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9122946.3%106 W · 123 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Hurricanes55c1,475$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.75152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Hurricanes62c1,400$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53257157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9762…73fbbacked Hurricanes71c1,392$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.753873.7%28 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Hurricanes70c1,386$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.762147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Flyers47c1,361$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.855954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Flyers56c1,335$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6513850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Flyers30c1,330$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920144.8%90 W · 111 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Hurricanes62c1,329$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.494355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Flyers38c1,273$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.7137754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Hurricanes48c1,261$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.526847.1%32 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Hurricanes65c1,239$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Hurricanes37c1,200$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.9810343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1af…c4d1backed Flyers31c1,188$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.261643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Hurricanes39c1,178$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.3313251.5%68 W · 64 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8af…03c2backed Hurricanes53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.086750.7%34 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Flyers61c1,057$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6454740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Hurricanes48c1,052$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.1112733.1%42 W · 85 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Hurricanes37c1,016$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.2219033.7%64 W · 126 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Hurricanes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30033652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Flyers32c999.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31527445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Flyers46c948.35$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.840356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Flyers39c930.45$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3623754%128 W · 109 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Hurricanes63c918.7$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Hurricanes71c859.94$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.